Modeling dynamics of native and invasive species to guide prioritization of management actions

Action to achieve biodiversity conservation is usually expensive, and resources are limited relative to conservation goals. Prioritizing management investment therefore is essential if important goals are to be achieved. New software, the “Islands DSS,” has been developed to prioritize the mix of management actions that will optimally mitigate biodiversity loss. Here, we present novel temporally dynamic models of species population growth, interaction, and management efficacy that have been incorporated into the software. We have analyzed the sensitivity of these models to uncertainty in four parameters: maximum rate of population growth (rmax), coefficient of species interaction (αij), quantity of food resources required to maintain species equilibrium (Ji), and the coefficient of management efficacy (θi). We focused on the projected abundance of species by simulating interactions among one to four species, both invasive and native, on a hypothetical arid‐tropical island that is 1000 ha in size and consists of five evenly distributed habitat types. Sensitivity analysis revealed significant variation in species abundance due to uncertainty in rmax (coefficient = 51.34; P