Why the cellulosic biofuels mandate fell short: a markets and policy perspective

The revised Renewable Fuel Standard's cellulosic biofuels mandate requires the USA to consume 16 000 million gallons of cellulosic biofuel per year by 2022. The cellulosic biofuels industry has fallen far short of reaching the production targets needed to achieve this volume, and it has even struggled to achieve the greatly reduced revised volumes that were created by the US Environmental Protection Agency despite the subsequent inclusion of landfill gas within the mandate. This article examines the underlying causes of this shortfall from the perspectives of markets and policy. It examines how the cellulosic biofuels production environment has not been conducive to the cost‐competitiveness of pioneer, first‐of‐their‐kind facilities and pathway buildout, and how recent techno‐economic analyses have used uncertainty to quantify the impacts of this environment. It further examines how the cellulosic biofuels mandate has actually hindered commercialization despite being intended to support it. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd