Effect of atmospheric circulation on recent temperature changes in Finland
The effect of atmospheric circulation on temperature variability and trends in Finland in 1979–2018 is studied using a trajectory-based method. On the average 81% of the detrended interannual variance of monthly mean temperatures is explained by the start points of the three-dimensional trajectories...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Climate dynamics 2019-11, Vol.53 (9-10), p.5675-5687 |
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| description | The effect of atmospheric circulation on temperature variability and trends in Finland in 1979–2018 is studied using a trajectory-based method. On the average 81% of the detrended interannual variance of monthly mean temperatures is explained by the start points of the three-dimensional trajectories, with the best performance in autumn and winter. Atmospheric circulation change is only found to have had a small impact on the observed annual mean temperature trends, but it has considerably modified the trends in individual months. In particular, changes in circulation explain the lack of observed warming in June, the very modest warming in October in southern Finland, and about a half of the very large warming in December. The residual trends obtained by subtracting the circulation-related change from observations are robustly positive in all months of the year, exhibit a smoother seasonal cycle, and agree better with the multi-model mean temperature trends from models in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Nevertheless, some differences between the residual trends and the average CMIP5 trends are also found. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00382-019-04890-2 |
| format | Article |
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On the average 81% of the detrended interannual variance of monthly mean temperatures is explained by the start points of the three-dimensional trajectories, with the best performance in autumn and winter. Atmospheric circulation change is only found to have had a small impact on the observed annual mean temperature trends, but it has considerably modified the trends in individual months. In particular, changes in circulation explain the lack of observed warming in June, the very modest warming in October in southern Finland, and about a half of the very large warming in December. The residual trends obtained by subtracting the circulation-related change from observations are robustly positive in all months of the year, exhibit a smoother seasonal cycle, and agree better with the multi-model mean temperature trends from models in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). 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On the average 81% of the detrended interannual variance of monthly mean temperatures is explained by the start points of the three-dimensional trajectories, with the best performance in autumn and winter. Atmospheric circulation change is only found to have had a small impact on the observed annual mean temperature trends, but it has considerably modified the trends in individual months. In particular, changes in circulation explain the lack of observed warming in June, the very modest warming in October in southern Finland, and about a half of the very large warming in December. The residual trends obtained by subtracting the circulation-related change from observations are robustly positive in all months of the year, exhibit a smoother seasonal cycle, and agree better with the multi-model mean temperature trends from models in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). 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On the average 81% of the detrended interannual variance of monthly mean temperatures is explained by the start points of the three-dimensional trajectories, with the best performance in autumn and winter. Atmospheric circulation change is only found to have had a small impact on the observed annual mean temperature trends, but it has considerably modified the trends in individual months. In particular, changes in circulation explain the lack of observed warming in June, the very modest warming in October in southern Finland, and about a half of the very large warming in December. The residual trends obtained by subtracting the circulation-related change from observations are robustly positive in all months of the year, exhibit a smoother seasonal cycle, and agree better with the multi-model mean temperature trends from models in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). 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| subjects | Analysis Annual variations Atmospheric circulation Atmospheric circulation changes Atmospheric circulation effects Atmospheric models Circulation Climate models Climatology Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Geophysics/Geodesy Intercomparison Mean monthly temperatures Mean temperatures Oceanography Seasonal variation Temperature Temperature changes Temperature effects Temperature trends Temperature variability Trajectories Trends Winter circulation |
| title | Effect of atmospheric circulation on recent temperature changes in Finland |
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