Opposite tropical circulation trends in climate models and in reanalyses

The Hadley circulation has large climate impacts at low latitudes by transferring heat and moisture between the tropics and subtropics. Climate projections show a robust weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation by the end of the twenty-first century. Over the past several decades, how...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:
Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Nature geoscience 2019-07, Vol.12 (7), p.528-532
Hauptverfasser: Chemke, Rei, Polvani, Lorenzo M.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Online-Zugang:Volltext
Tags: Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
container_end_page 532
container_issue 7
container_start_page 528
container_title Nature geoscience
container_volume 12
creator Chemke, Rei
Polvani, Lorenzo M.
description The Hadley circulation has large climate impacts at low latitudes by transferring heat and moisture between the tropics and subtropics. Climate projections show a robust weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation by the end of the twenty-first century. Over the past several decades, however, atmospheric reanalyses indicate a strengthening of the Hadley circulation. Here we show that the strengthening of the circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is not seen in climate models; instead, these models simulate a weakening of the circulation in the past 40 years. Using observations and a large ensemble of model simulations we elucidate this discrepancy between climate models and reanalyses, and show that it does not stem from internal climate variability or biases in climate models, but appears related to artefacts in the representation of latent heating in the reanalyses. Our results highlight the role of anthropogenic emissions in the recent slowdown of the atmospheric circulation, which is projected to continue in coming decades, and question the reliability of reanalyses for estimating trends in the Hadley circulation. The Hadley circulation has been weakening over the past 40 years, as simulated by climate models, and not strengthening as found in observation-based reanalyses, suggests an analysis of both methods that points to artefacts in the reanalyses.
doi_str_mv 10.1038/s41561-019-0383-x
format Article
fullrecord <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_2248354457</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2248354457</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c316t-e6c7d5b53e4c3a64d170bd84750b343f6b801332a79cdae9d64f25bac10e61c53</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp1kE9LxDAQxYMouK5-AG8Fz9FJ86ftURZ1hYW96DmkSSpduk3NtLD77c1SF0-eZubx3vD4EXLP4JEBL59QMKkYBVbRdHJ6uCALVsicQgXl5XkvK3FNbhB3AApEIRdkvR2GgO3oszGGobWmy2wb7dSZsQ19En3vMGv7zHbt3iTbPjjfYWZ6d1KjN73pjujxllw1pkN_9zuX5PP15WO1ppvt2_vqeUMtZ2qkXtnCyVpyLyw3SjhWQO3K1AVqLnij6hIY57kpKuuMr5wSTS5rYxl4xazkS_Iw_x1i-J48jnoXpphKoM5zUXIphCySi80uGwNi9I0eYuofj5qBPgHTMzCdgOkTMH1ImXzOYPL2Xz7-ff4_9APbPW7L</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2248354457</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Opposite tropical circulation trends in climate models and in reanalyses</title><source>Alma/SFX Local Collection</source><creator>Chemke, Rei ; Polvani, Lorenzo M.</creator><creatorcontrib>Chemke, Rei ; Polvani, Lorenzo M.</creatorcontrib><description>The Hadley circulation has large climate impacts at low latitudes by transferring heat and moisture between the tropics and subtropics. Climate projections show a robust weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation by the end of the twenty-first century. Over the past several decades, however, atmospheric reanalyses indicate a strengthening of the Hadley circulation. Here we show that the strengthening of the circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is not seen in climate models; instead, these models simulate a weakening of the circulation in the past 40 years. Using observations and a large ensemble of model simulations we elucidate this discrepancy between climate models and reanalyses, and show that it does not stem from internal climate variability or biases in climate models, but appears related to artefacts in the representation of latent heating in the reanalyses. Our results highlight the role of anthropogenic emissions in the recent slowdown of the atmospheric circulation, which is projected to continue in coming decades, and question the reliability of reanalyses for estimating trends in the Hadley circulation. The Hadley circulation has been weakening over the past 40 years, as simulated by climate models, and not strengthening as found in observation-based reanalyses, suggests an analysis of both methods that points to artefacts in the reanalyses.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1752-0894</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1752-0908</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0383-x</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>London: Nature Publishing Group UK</publisher><subject>704/106/35/823 ; 704/106/694 ; Anthropogenic factors ; Artefacts ; Atmospheric circulation ; Atmospheric models ; Circulation ; Climate ; Climate models ; Climate variability ; Computer simulation ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Earth System Sciences ; Geochemistry ; Geology ; Geophysics/Geodesy ; Hadley circulation ; Heating ; Human influences ; Northern Hemisphere ; Temperature ; Trends ; Tropical circulation ; Tropical climate ; Tropical climates ; Tropical environments</subject><ispartof>Nature geoscience, 2019-07, Vol.12 (7), p.528-532</ispartof><rights>The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2019</rights><rights>Copyright Nature Publishing Group Jul 2019</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c316t-e6c7d5b53e4c3a64d170bd84750b343f6b801332a79cdae9d64f25bac10e61c53</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c316t-e6c7d5b53e4c3a64d170bd84750b343f6b801332a79cdae9d64f25bac10e61c53</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-7121-6437 ; 0000-0003-4775-8110</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>315,782,786,27931,27932</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Chemke, Rei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Polvani, Lorenzo M.</creatorcontrib><title>Opposite tropical circulation trends in climate models and in reanalyses</title><title>Nature geoscience</title><addtitle>Nat. Geosci</addtitle><description>The Hadley circulation has large climate impacts at low latitudes by transferring heat and moisture between the tropics and subtropics. Climate projections show a robust weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation by the end of the twenty-first century. Over the past several decades, however, atmospheric reanalyses indicate a strengthening of the Hadley circulation. Here we show that the strengthening of the circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is not seen in climate models; instead, these models simulate a weakening of the circulation in the past 40 years. Using observations and a large ensemble of model simulations we elucidate this discrepancy between climate models and reanalyses, and show that it does not stem from internal climate variability or biases in climate models, but appears related to artefacts in the representation of latent heating in the reanalyses. Our results highlight the role of anthropogenic emissions in the recent slowdown of the atmospheric circulation, which is projected to continue in coming decades, and question the reliability of reanalyses for estimating trends in the Hadley circulation. The Hadley circulation has been weakening over the past 40 years, as simulated by climate models, and not strengthening as found in observation-based reanalyses, suggests an analysis of both methods that points to artefacts in the reanalyses.</description><subject>704/106/35/823</subject><subject>704/106/694</subject><subject>Anthropogenic factors</subject><subject>Artefacts</subject><subject>Atmospheric circulation</subject><subject>Atmospheric models</subject><subject>Circulation</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climate variability</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Earth System Sciences</subject><subject>Geochemistry</subject><subject>Geology</subject><subject>Geophysics/Geodesy</subject><subject>Hadley circulation</subject><subject>Heating</subject><subject>Human influences</subject><subject>Northern Hemisphere</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Tropical circulation</subject><subject>Tropical climate</subject><subject>Tropical climates</subject><subject>Tropical environments</subject><issn>1752-0894</issn><issn>1752-0908</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2019</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kE9LxDAQxYMouK5-AG8Fz9FJ86ftURZ1hYW96DmkSSpduk3NtLD77c1SF0-eZubx3vD4EXLP4JEBL59QMKkYBVbRdHJ6uCALVsicQgXl5XkvK3FNbhB3AApEIRdkvR2GgO3oszGGobWmy2wb7dSZsQ19En3vMGv7zHbt3iTbPjjfYWZ6d1KjN73pjujxllw1pkN_9zuX5PP15WO1ppvt2_vqeUMtZ2qkXtnCyVpyLyw3SjhWQO3K1AVqLnij6hIY57kpKuuMr5wSTS5rYxl4xazkS_Iw_x1i-J48jnoXpphKoM5zUXIphCySi80uGwNi9I0eYuofj5qBPgHTMzCdgOkTMH1ImXzOYPL2Xz7-ff4_9APbPW7L</recordid><startdate>20190701</startdate><enddate>20190701</enddate><creator>Chemke, Rei</creator><creator>Polvani, Lorenzo M.</creator><general>Nature Publishing Group UK</general><general>Nature Publishing Group</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7121-6437</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4775-8110</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20190701</creationdate><title>Opposite tropical circulation trends in climate models and in reanalyses</title><author>Chemke, Rei ; Polvani, Lorenzo M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c316t-e6c7d5b53e4c3a64d170bd84750b343f6b801332a79cdae9d64f25bac10e61c53</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2019</creationdate><topic>704/106/35/823</topic><topic>704/106/694</topic><topic>Anthropogenic factors</topic><topic>Artefacts</topic><topic>Atmospheric circulation</topic><topic>Atmospheric models</topic><topic>Circulation</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>Climate variability</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Earth System Sciences</topic><topic>Geochemistry</topic><topic>Geology</topic><topic>Geophysics/Geodesy</topic><topic>Hadley circulation</topic><topic>Heating</topic><topic>Human influences</topic><topic>Northern Hemisphere</topic><topic>Temperature</topic><topic>Trends</topic><topic>Tropical circulation</topic><topic>Tropical climate</topic><topic>Tropical climates</topic><topic>Tropical environments</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Chemke, Rei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Polvani, Lorenzo M.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological &amp; Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection (ProQuest)</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric &amp; Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Aquatic Science &amp; Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy &amp; Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological &amp; Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science &amp; Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric &amp; Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><jtitle>Nature geoscience</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Chemke, Rei</au><au>Polvani, Lorenzo M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Opposite tropical circulation trends in climate models and in reanalyses</atitle><jtitle>Nature geoscience</jtitle><stitle>Nat. Geosci</stitle><date>2019-07-01</date><risdate>2019</risdate><volume>12</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>528</spage><epage>532</epage><pages>528-532</pages><issn>1752-0894</issn><eissn>1752-0908</eissn><abstract>The Hadley circulation has large climate impacts at low latitudes by transferring heat and moisture between the tropics and subtropics. Climate projections show a robust weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation by the end of the twenty-first century. Over the past several decades, however, atmospheric reanalyses indicate a strengthening of the Hadley circulation. Here we show that the strengthening of the circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is not seen in climate models; instead, these models simulate a weakening of the circulation in the past 40 years. Using observations and a large ensemble of model simulations we elucidate this discrepancy between climate models and reanalyses, and show that it does not stem from internal climate variability or biases in climate models, but appears related to artefacts in the representation of latent heating in the reanalyses. Our results highlight the role of anthropogenic emissions in the recent slowdown of the atmospheric circulation, which is projected to continue in coming decades, and question the reliability of reanalyses for estimating trends in the Hadley circulation. The Hadley circulation has been weakening over the past 40 years, as simulated by climate models, and not strengthening as found in observation-based reanalyses, suggests an analysis of both methods that points to artefacts in the reanalyses.</abstract><cop>London</cop><pub>Nature Publishing Group UK</pub><doi>10.1038/s41561-019-0383-x</doi><tpages>5</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7121-6437</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4775-8110</orcidid></addata></record>
fulltext fulltext
identifier ISSN: 1752-0894
ispartof Nature geoscience, 2019-07, Vol.12 (7), p.528-532
issn 1752-0894
1752-0908
language eng
recordid cdi_proquest_journals_2248354457
source Alma/SFX Local Collection
subjects 704/106/35/823
704/106/694
Anthropogenic factors
Artefacts
Atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric models
Circulation
Climate
Climate models
Climate variability
Computer simulation
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth System Sciences
Geochemistry
Geology
Geophysics/Geodesy
Hadley circulation
Heating
Human influences
Northern Hemisphere
Temperature
Trends
Tropical circulation
Tropical climate
Tropical climates
Tropical environments
title Opposite tropical circulation trends in climate models and in reanalyses
url https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-05T13%3A15%3A34IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Opposite%20tropical%20circulation%20trends%20in%20climate%20models%20and%20in%20reanalyses&rft.jtitle=Nature%20geoscience&rft.au=Chemke,%20Rei&rft.date=2019-07-01&rft.volume=12&rft.issue=7&rft.spage=528&rft.epage=532&rft.pages=528-532&rft.issn=1752-0894&rft.eissn=1752-0908&rft_id=info:doi/10.1038/s41561-019-0383-x&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E2248354457%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2248354457&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true