Opposite tropical circulation trends in climate models and in reanalyses
The Hadley circulation has large climate impacts at low latitudes by transferring heat and moisture between the tropics and subtropics. Climate projections show a robust weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation by the end of the twenty-first century. Over the past several decades, how...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Nature geoscience 2019-07, Vol.12 (7), p.528-532 |
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description | The Hadley circulation has large climate impacts at low latitudes by transferring heat and moisture between the tropics and subtropics. Climate projections show a robust weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation by the end of the twenty-first century. Over the past several decades, however, atmospheric reanalyses indicate a strengthening of the Hadley circulation. Here we show that the strengthening of the circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is not seen in climate models; instead, these models simulate a weakening of the circulation in the past 40 years. Using observations and a large ensemble of model simulations we elucidate this discrepancy between climate models and reanalyses, and show that it does not stem from internal climate variability or biases in climate models, but appears related to artefacts in the representation of latent heating in the reanalyses. Our results highlight the role of anthropogenic emissions in the recent slowdown of the atmospheric circulation, which is projected to continue in coming decades, and question the reliability of reanalyses for estimating trends in the Hadley circulation.
The Hadley circulation has been weakening over the past 40 years, as simulated by climate models, and not strengthening as found in observation-based reanalyses, suggests an analysis of both methods that points to artefacts in the reanalyses. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1038/s41561-019-0383-x |
format | Article |
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The Hadley circulation has been weakening over the past 40 years, as simulated by climate models, and not strengthening as found in observation-based reanalyses, suggests an analysis of both methods that points to artefacts in the reanalyses.</description><subject>704/106/35/823</subject><subject>704/106/694</subject><subject>Anthropogenic factors</subject><subject>Artefacts</subject><subject>Atmospheric circulation</subject><subject>Atmospheric models</subject><subject>Circulation</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climate variability</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Earth System Sciences</subject><subject>Geochemistry</subject><subject>Geology</subject><subject>Geophysics/Geodesy</subject><subject>Hadley circulation</subject><subject>Heating</subject><subject>Human influences</subject><subject>Northern Hemisphere</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Tropical circulation</subject><subject>Tropical climate</subject><subject>Tropical climates</subject><subject>Tropical environments</subject><issn>1752-0894</issn><issn>1752-0908</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2019</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kE9LxDAQxYMouK5-AG8Fz9FJ86ftURZ1hYW96DmkSSpduk3NtLD77c1SF0-eZubx3vD4EXLP4JEBL59QMKkYBVbRdHJ6uCALVsicQgXl5XkvK3FNbhB3AApEIRdkvR2GgO3oszGGobWmy2wb7dSZsQ19En3vMGv7zHbt3iTbPjjfYWZ6d1KjN73pjujxllw1pkN_9zuX5PP15WO1ppvt2_vqeUMtZ2qkXtnCyVpyLyw3SjhWQO3K1AVqLnij6hIY57kpKuuMr5wSTS5rYxl4xazkS_Iw_x1i-J48jnoXpphKoM5zUXIphCySi80uGwNi9I0eYuofj5qBPgHTMzCdgOkTMH1ImXzOYPL2Xz7-ff4_9APbPW7L</recordid><startdate>20190701</startdate><enddate>20190701</enddate><creator>Chemke, Rei</creator><creator>Polvani, Lorenzo M.</creator><general>Nature Publishing Group UK</general><general>Nature Publishing Group</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7121-6437</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4775-8110</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20190701</creationdate><title>Opposite tropical circulation trends in climate models and in reanalyses</title><author>Chemke, Rei ; 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Geosci</stitle><date>2019-07-01</date><risdate>2019</risdate><volume>12</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>528</spage><epage>532</epage><pages>528-532</pages><issn>1752-0894</issn><eissn>1752-0908</eissn><abstract>The Hadley circulation has large climate impacts at low latitudes by transferring heat and moisture between the tropics and subtropics. Climate projections show a robust weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation by the end of the twenty-first century. Over the past several decades, however, atmospheric reanalyses indicate a strengthening of the Hadley circulation. Here we show that the strengthening of the circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is not seen in climate models; instead, these models simulate a weakening of the circulation in the past 40 years. Using observations and a large ensemble of model simulations we elucidate this discrepancy between climate models and reanalyses, and show that it does not stem from internal climate variability or biases in climate models, but appears related to artefacts in the representation of latent heating in the reanalyses. Our results highlight the role of anthropogenic emissions in the recent slowdown of the atmospheric circulation, which is projected to continue in coming decades, and question the reliability of reanalyses for estimating trends in the Hadley circulation.
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subjects | 704/106/35/823 704/106/694 Anthropogenic factors Artefacts Atmospheric circulation Atmospheric models Circulation Climate Climate models Climate variability Computer simulation Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth System Sciences Geochemistry Geology Geophysics/Geodesy Hadley circulation Heating Human influences Northern Hemisphere Temperature Trends Tropical circulation Tropical climate Tropical climates Tropical environments |
title | Opposite tropical circulation trends in climate models and in reanalyses |
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