Hybrid model of ARIMA-linear trend model for tourist arrivals prediction model in Surakarta City, Indonesia

It is important to predict the tourist arrival to help the government in making appropriate decisions. Many models have been proposed to estimate the number of tourist arrivals in the future. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, linear trend and Holt-Winter triple exponential s...

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Hauptverfasser:	Purwanto, Sunardi, Julfia, Fenty Tristanti, Paramananda, Aditya
Format:	Tagungsbericht
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Arrivals Autoregressive models Economic recovery Smoothing
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creator	Purwanto Sunardi Julfia, Fenty Tristanti Paramananda, Aditya
description	It is important to predict the tourist arrival to help the government in making appropriate decisions. Many models have been proposed to estimate the number of tourist arrivals in the future. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, linear trend and Holt-Winter triple exponential smoothing are among successful models used in various fields. In the present study, we propose a hybrid model that combines ARIMA and linear trend model as a tourist arrivals prediction model. Experiment results show that the hybrid model produces better prediction performance compared to ARIMA, linear trend and Holt-Winter triple exponential smoothing models.
doi_str_mv	10.1063/1.5112481
format	Conference Proceeding
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identifier	ISSN: 0094-243X
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language	eng
recordid	cdi_proquest_journals_2247170631
source	AIP Journals Complete
subjects	Arrivals Autoregressive models Economic recovery Smoothing
title	Hybrid model of ARIMA-linear trend model for tourist arrivals prediction model in Surakarta City, Indonesia
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