The Urge to Purge: Forecasting Erdogan’s Political Survival Following the Failed Coup

Drawing upon earlier research on the post failed coup survival of political leaders, we offer an ex ante in sample estimate of the likely political survival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the fail coup of 2016. Depending on the assumption made about when he entered office, we co...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:	Alternatives: global, local, political local, political, 2018-11, Vol.43 (4), p.222-227
Hauptverfasser:	Easton, Malcolm R., Siverson, Randolph M.
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Coups d'etat Elections Forecasting Political leadership Politics Presidents Survival Tenure
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
Tags:	Tag hinzufügen Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!

container_end_page	227
container_issue	4
container_start_page	222
container_title	Alternatives: global, local, political
container_volume	43
creator	Easton, Malcolm R. Siverson, Randolph M.
description	Drawing upon earlier research on the post failed coup survival of political leaders, we offer an ex ante in sample estimate of the likely political survival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the fail coup of 2016. Depending on the assumption made about when he entered office, we conclude that his tenure is likely to endure until 2026, a result that was reached before his recent call for a snap election and its implications. We conclude with a brief discussion of the policy implications of President Erdogan’s likely length of tenure.
doi_str_mv	10.1177/0304375419842749
format	Article
fullrecord	<record><control><sourceid>jstor_proqu</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_2242038826</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><jstor_id>26727356</jstor_id><sage_id>10.1177_0304375419842749</sage_id><sourcerecordid>26727356</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c331t-f18485bd03491b1d7349c13a93abbf31f92fedaa2ea76edd40b3e1cca80ad00e3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9j81LxDAQxYMoWFcP3rwIBc_RmUzaJEdZ_IIFPeyeQ9qkq0XtmrQH_3tbKgoePL2B93tveIydIVwiKnUFBJJUIdFoKZQ0eywTWBInLGCfZZPNJ_-QHaXUAgCCNhk7XT-HfBO3Ie-7_GkYj2N20LjXFE6-dcE2tzfr5T1fPd49LK9XvCbCnjeopS4qDyQNVujVqDWSM-SqqiFsjGiCd04Ep8rgvYSKAta10-A8QKAFu5h7d7H7GELqbdsN8X18aYWQAkhrUY4UzFQdu5RiaOwuvry5-GkR7DTc_h0-RvgcSW4bfkv_4c9nvk19F3_6RamEoqKkLwrQXq4</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2242038826</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>The Urge to Purge: Forecasting Erdogan’s Political Survival Following the Failed Coup</title><source>Jstor Complete Legacy</source><source>Worldwide Political Science Abstracts</source><source>SAGE Complete</source><source>Sociological Abstracts</source><creator>Easton, Malcolm R. ; Siverson, Randolph M.</creator><creatorcontrib>Easton, Malcolm R. ; Siverson, Randolph M.</creatorcontrib><description>Drawing upon earlier research on the post failed coup survival of political leaders, we offer an ex ante in sample estimate of the likely political survival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the fail coup of 2016. Depending on the assumption made about when he entered office, we conclude that his tenure is likely to endure until 2026, a result that was reached before his recent call for a snap election and its implications. We conclude with a brief discussion of the policy implications of President Erdogan’s likely length of tenure.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0304-3754</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2163-3150</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1177/0304375419842749</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Los Angeles, CA: Sage Publications, Inc</publisher><subject>Coups d'etat ; Elections ; Forecasting ; Political leadership ; Politics ; Presidents ; Survival ; Tenure</subject><ispartof>Alternatives: global, local, political, 2018-11, Vol.43 (4), p.222-227</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2019</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c331t-f18485bd03491b1d7349c13a93abbf31f92fedaa2ea76edd40b3e1cca80ad00e3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c331t-f18485bd03491b1d7349c13a93abbf31f92fedaa2ea76edd40b3e1cca80ad00e3</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-9815-5745</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/26727356$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/26727356$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,799,21798,27901,27902,33751,43597,43598,57992,58225</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Easton, Malcolm R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Siverson, Randolph M.</creatorcontrib><title>The Urge to Purge: Forecasting Erdogan’s Political Survival Following the Failed Coup</title><title>Alternatives: global, local, political</title><description>Drawing upon earlier research on the post failed coup survival of political leaders, we offer an ex ante in sample estimate of the likely political survival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the fail coup of 2016. Depending on the assumption made about when he entered office, we conclude that his tenure is likely to endure until 2026, a result that was reached before his recent call for a snap election and its implications. We conclude with a brief discussion of the policy implications of President Erdogan’s likely length of tenure.</description><subject>Coups d'etat</subject><subject>Elections</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Political leadership</subject><subject>Politics</subject><subject>Presidents</subject><subject>Survival</subject><subject>Tenure</subject><issn>0304-3754</issn><issn>2163-3150</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>7UB</sourceid><sourceid>BHHNA</sourceid><recordid>eNp9j81LxDAQxYMoWFcP3rwIBc_RmUzaJEdZ_IIFPeyeQ9qkq0XtmrQH_3tbKgoePL2B93tveIydIVwiKnUFBJJUIdFoKZQ0eywTWBInLGCfZZPNJ_-QHaXUAgCCNhk7XT-HfBO3Ie-7_GkYj2N20LjXFE6-dcE2tzfr5T1fPd49LK9XvCbCnjeopS4qDyQNVujVqDWSM-SqqiFsjGiCd04Ep8rgvYSKAta10-A8QKAFu5h7d7H7GELqbdsN8X18aYWQAkhrUY4UzFQdu5RiaOwuvry5-GkR7DTc_h0-RvgcSW4bfkv_4c9nvk19F3_6RamEoqKkLwrQXq4</recordid><startdate>20181101</startdate><enddate>20181101</enddate><creator>Easton, Malcolm R.</creator><creator>Siverson, Randolph M.</creator><general>Sage Publications, Inc</general><general>SAGE Publications</general><general>SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>4T-</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7U4</scope><scope>7UB</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>BHHNA</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>DWI</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope><scope>SOI</scope><scope>WZK</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9815-5745</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20181101</creationdate><title>The Urge to Purge</title><author>Easton, Malcolm R. ; Siverson, Randolph M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c331t-f18485bd03491b1d7349c13a93abbf31f92fedaa2ea76edd40b3e1cca80ad00e3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2018</creationdate><topic>Coups d'etat</topic><topic>Elections</topic><topic>Forecasting</topic><topic>Political leadership</topic><topic>Politics</topic><topic>Presidents</topic><topic>Survival</topic><topic>Tenure</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Easton, Malcolm R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Siverson, Randolph M.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Docstoc</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts (pre-2017)</collection><collection>Worldwide Political Science Abstracts</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts (Ovid)</collection><jtitle>Alternatives: global, local, political</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Easton, Malcolm R.</au><au>Siverson, Randolph M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>The Urge to Purge: Forecasting Erdogan’s Political Survival Following the Failed Coup</atitle><jtitle>Alternatives: global, local, political</jtitle><date>2018-11-01</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>43</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>222</spage><epage>227</epage><pages>222-227</pages><issn>0304-3754</issn><eissn>2163-3150</eissn><abstract>Drawing upon earlier research on the post failed coup survival of political leaders, we offer an ex ante in sample estimate of the likely political survival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the fail coup of 2016. Depending on the assumption made about when he entered office, we conclude that his tenure is likely to endure until 2026, a result that was reached before his recent call for a snap election and its implications. We conclude with a brief discussion of the policy implications of President Erdogan’s likely length of tenure.</abstract><cop>Los Angeles, CA</cop><pub>Sage Publications, Inc</pub><doi>10.1177/0304375419842749</doi><tpages>6</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9815-5745</orcidid></addata></record>
fulltext	fulltext
identifier	ISSN: 0304-3754
ispartof	Alternatives: global, local, political, 2018-11, Vol.43 (4), p.222-227
issn	0304-3754 2163-3150
language	eng
recordid	cdi_proquest_journals_2242038826
source	Jstor Complete Legacy; Worldwide Political Science Abstracts; SAGE Complete; Sociological Abstracts
subjects	Coups d'etat Elections Forecasting Political leadership Politics Presidents Survival Tenure
title	The Urge to Purge: Forecasting Erdogan’s Political Survival Following the Failed Coup
url	https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-31T11%3A08%3A00IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-jstor_proqu&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=The%20Urge%20to%20Purge:%20Forecasting%20Erdogan%E2%80%99s%20Political%20Survival%20Following%20the%20Failed%20Coup&rft.jtitle=Alternatives:%20global,%20local,%20political&rft.au=Easton,%20Malcolm%20R.&rft.date=2018-11-01&rft.volume=43&rft.issue=4&rft.spage=222&rft.epage=227&rft.pages=222-227&rft.issn=0304-3754&rft.eissn=2163-3150&rft_id=info:doi/10.1177/0304375419842749&rft_dat=%3Cjstor_proqu%3E26727356%3C/jstor_proqu%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2242038826&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_jstor_id=26727356&rft_sage_id=10.1177_0304375419842749&rfr_iscdi=true