A Scenario-Based Approach for Assessing the Hydrological Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change in the Marboreh Watershed, Iran
In separate analyses of the impacts of land use change and climate change, a scenario-based approach using remote sensing and hydro-climatological data was developed to assess changes in hydrological indices. The data comprised three Landsat TM images (1988, 1998, 2008) and meteorological and hydrol...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Environmental modeling & assessment 2020-02, Vol.25 (1), p.41-57 |
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| creator | Torabi Haghighi, Ali Darabi, Hamid Shahedi, Kaka Solaimani, Karim Kløve, Bjørn |
| description | In separate analyses of the impacts of land use change and climate change, a scenario-based approach using remote sensing and hydro-climatological data was developed to assess changes in hydrological indices. The data comprised three Landsat TM images (1988, 1998, 2008) and meteorological and hydrological data (1983–2012) for the Aligudarz and Doroud stations in the Marboreh watershed, Iran. The QUAC module and supervised classification maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm in ENVI 5.1 were used for remote sensing, the SWAT model for hydrological modelling and the Mann-Kendall and
t
test methods for statistical analysis. To create scenarios, the study period was divided into three decades (1983–1992, 1993–2002, 2003–2012) with clearly different land use/land cover (LULC). After hydrological modelling, 10 hydrological indices related to high and low flow indices (HDI and LDI) were analysed for seven scenarios developed by combining pre-defined climate periods and LULC maps. The major changes in land use were degradation of natural rangeland (− 18.49%) and increasing raid-fed farm area (+ 16.70%) and residential area (+ 0.80%). The Mann-Kendall test results showed a statistically significant (
p
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| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10666-019-09665-x |
| format | Article |
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t
test methods for statistical analysis. To create scenarios, the study period was divided into three decades (1983–1992, 1993–2002, 2003–2012) with clearly different land use/land cover (LULC). After hydrological modelling, 10 hydrological indices related to high and low flow indices (HDI and LDI) were analysed for seven scenarios developed by combining pre-defined climate periods and LULC maps. The major changes in land use were degradation of natural rangeland (− 18.49%) and increasing raid-fed farm area (+ 16.70%) and residential area (+ 0.80%). The Mann-Kendall test results showed a statistically significant (
p
< 0.05) decreasing trend in rainfall and flow during 1983–2012. In the scenarios evaluated, hydrological index trends were more sensitive to climate change than to LULC changes in the study area. Low flow indices were more affected than high flow indices in both land use and climate change scenarios. The results show little impact of land use change and indicate that climate change is the main driver of hydrological variations in the catchment. This is useful information in outlining future strategies for sustainable water resources management and policy decision-making in the Marboreh watershed.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1420-2026</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-2967</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10666-019-09665-x</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Cham: Springer International Publishing</publisher><subject>Algorithms ; Analysis ; Applications of Mathematics ; Aquatic resources ; Climate change ; Climatology ; Decision making ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth resources technology satellites ; Environment ; Flow index ; Global temperature changes ; High flow ; Hydrology ; Land cover ; Land use ; Landsat ; Landsat satellites ; Low flow ; Management ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics ; Methods ; Modelling ; Operations Research/Decision Theory ; Rain and rainfall ; Rainfall ; Rangelands ; Remote sensing ; Residential areas ; Satellite imagery ; Statistical analysis ; Statistical methods ; Test procedures ; Water ; Water resources ; Water resources management ; Watersheds</subject><ispartof>Environmental modeling & assessment, 2020-02, Vol.25 (1), p.41-57</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2019</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2020 Springer</rights><rights>Environmental Modeling Assessment is a copyright of Springer, (2019). All Rights Reserved. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c402t-a10983f2c22c687a18b46d35c6a357eba495bfe47f9667c257a7e8f27d94cfaa3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c402t-a10983f2c22c687a18b46d35c6a357eba495bfe47f9667c257a7e8f27d94cfaa3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-5157-0156</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10666-019-09665-x$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10666-019-09665-x$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Torabi Haghighi, Ali</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Darabi, Hamid</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shahedi, Kaka</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Solaimani, Karim</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kløve, Bjørn</creatorcontrib><title>A Scenario-Based Approach for Assessing the Hydrological Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change in the Marboreh Watershed, Iran</title><title>Environmental modeling & assessment</title><addtitle>Environ Model Assess</addtitle><description>In separate analyses of the impacts of land use change and climate change, a scenario-based approach using remote sensing and hydro-climatological data was developed to assess changes in hydrological indices. The data comprised three Landsat TM images (1988, 1998, 2008) and meteorological and hydrological data (1983–2012) for the Aligudarz and Doroud stations in the Marboreh watershed, Iran. The QUAC module and supervised classification maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm in ENVI 5.1 were used for remote sensing, the SWAT model for hydrological modelling and the Mann-Kendall and
t
test methods for statistical analysis. To create scenarios, the study period was divided into three decades (1983–1992, 1993–2002, 2003–2012) with clearly different land use/land cover (LULC). After hydrological modelling, 10 hydrological indices related to high and low flow indices (HDI and LDI) were analysed for seven scenarios developed by combining pre-defined climate periods and LULC maps. The major changes in land use were degradation of natural rangeland (− 18.49%) and increasing raid-fed farm area (+ 16.70%) and residential area (+ 0.80%). The Mann-Kendall test results showed a statistically significant (
p
< 0.05) decreasing trend in rainfall and flow during 1983–2012. In the scenarios evaluated, hydrological index trends were more sensitive to climate change than to LULC changes in the study area. Low flow indices were more affected than high flow indices in both land use and climate change scenarios. The results show little impact of land use change and indicate that climate change is the main driver of hydrological variations in the catchment. This is useful information in outlining future strategies for sustainable water resources management and policy decision-making in the Marboreh watershed.</description><subject>Algorithms</subject><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Applications of Mathematics</subject><subject>Aquatic resources</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climatology</subject><subject>Decision making</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth resources technology satellites</subject><subject>Environment</subject><subject>Flow index</subject><subject>Global temperature changes</subject><subject>High flow</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Land cover</subject><subject>Land use</subject><subject>Landsat</subject><subject>Landsat satellites</subject><subject>Low flow</subject><subject>Management</subject><subject>Math. Appl. in Environmental Science</subject><subject>Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics</subject><subject>Methods</subject><subject>Modelling</subject><subject>Operations Research/Decision Theory</subject><subject>Rain and rainfall</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Rangelands</subject><subject>Remote sensing</subject><subject>Residential areas</subject><subject>Satellite imagery</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Statistical methods</subject><subject>Test procedures</subject><subject>Water</subject><subject>Water resources</subject><subject>Water resources management</subject><subject>Watersheds</subject><issn>1420-2026</issn><issn>1573-2967</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>C6C</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kUtPxCAUhRujic8_4IrErSjQFtplnfiYZIwLNS7JHXqZ1nRghJqMK_-6aE3cGRaXXM4H93Cy7JSzC86YuoycSSkp4zVltZQl3e5kB7xUORW1VLtpXwhGBRNyPzuM8ZWxpGflQfbZkEeDDkLv6RVEbEmz2QQPpiPWB9LEiDH2bkXGDsndRxv84Fe9gYHM1xswYyTekgW4ljxHJN91NvRrGJHMOnArJL37Qe8hLH3AjryksxA7bM_JPIA7zvYsDBFPfutR9nxz_TS7o4uH2_msWVBTMDFS4KyuciuMEEZWCni1LGSbl0ZCXipcQlGXS4uFssm9MqJUoLCyQrV1YSxAfpSdTfcmc2_vGEf96t-DS09qIbgsKyEkT6qLSbWCAXXvrB8DmLRaXPfGO7R96jeK57VK8joBYgJM8DEGtHoTkv3woTnT38noKRmdktE_yehtgvIJikmc_ij8zfIP9QV4pJFV</recordid><startdate>20200201</startdate><enddate>20200201</enddate><creator>Torabi Haghighi, Ali</creator><creator>Darabi, Hamid</creator><creator>Shahedi, Kaka</creator><creator>Solaimani, Karim</creator><creator>Kløve, Bjørn</creator><general>Springer International Publishing</general><general>Springer</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>C6C</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7SC</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>87Z</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8AL</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8FL</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FRNLG</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>JQ2</scope><scope>K60</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>K7-</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>L~C</scope><scope>L~D</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>M0N</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQBZA</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>SOI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5157-0156</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20200201</creationdate><title>A Scenario-Based Approach for Assessing the Hydrological Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change in the Marboreh Watershed, Iran</title><author>Torabi Haghighi, Ali ; Darabi, Hamid ; Shahedi, Kaka ; Solaimani, Karim ; Kløve, Bjørn</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c402t-a10983f2c22c687a18b46d35c6a357eba495bfe47f9667c257a7e8f27d94cfaa3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Algorithms</topic><topic>Analysis</topic><topic>Applications of Mathematics</topic><topic>Aquatic resources</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climatology</topic><topic>Decision making</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth resources technology satellites</topic><topic>Environment</topic><topic>Flow index</topic><topic>Global temperature changes</topic><topic>High flow</topic><topic>Hydrology</topic><topic>Land cover</topic><topic>Land use</topic><topic>Landsat</topic><topic>Landsat satellites</topic><topic>Low flow</topic><topic>Management</topic><topic>Math. 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assessment</jtitle><stitle>Environ Model Assess</stitle><date>2020-02-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>25</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>41</spage><epage>57</epage><pages>41-57</pages><issn>1420-2026</issn><eissn>1573-2967</eissn><abstract>In separate analyses of the impacts of land use change and climate change, a scenario-based approach using remote sensing and hydro-climatological data was developed to assess changes in hydrological indices. The data comprised three Landsat TM images (1988, 1998, 2008) and meteorological and hydrological data (1983–2012) for the Aligudarz and Doroud stations in the Marboreh watershed, Iran. The QUAC module and supervised classification maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm in ENVI 5.1 were used for remote sensing, the SWAT model for hydrological modelling and the Mann-Kendall and
t
test methods for statistical analysis. To create scenarios, the study period was divided into three decades (1983–1992, 1993–2002, 2003–2012) with clearly different land use/land cover (LULC). After hydrological modelling, 10 hydrological indices related to high and low flow indices (HDI and LDI) were analysed for seven scenarios developed by combining pre-defined climate periods and LULC maps. The major changes in land use were degradation of natural rangeland (− 18.49%) and increasing raid-fed farm area (+ 16.70%) and residential area (+ 0.80%). The Mann-Kendall test results showed a statistically significant (
p
< 0.05) decreasing trend in rainfall and flow during 1983–2012. In the scenarios evaluated, hydrological index trends were more sensitive to climate change than to LULC changes in the study area. Low flow indices were more affected than high flow indices in both land use and climate change scenarios. The results show little impact of land use change and indicate that climate change is the main driver of hydrological variations in the catchment. This is useful information in outlining future strategies for sustainable water resources management and policy decision-making in the Marboreh watershed.</abstract><cop>Cham</cop><pub>Springer International Publishing</pub><doi>10.1007/s10666-019-09665-x</doi><tpages>17</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5157-0156</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Algorithms Analysis Applications of Mathematics Aquatic resources Climate change Climatology Decision making Earth and Environmental Science Earth resources technology satellites Environment Flow index Global temperature changes High flow Hydrology Land cover Land use Landsat Landsat satellites Low flow Management Math. Appl. in Environmental Science Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics Methods Modelling Operations Research/Decision Theory Rain and rainfall Rainfall Rangelands Remote sensing Residential areas Satellite imagery Statistical analysis Statistical methods Test procedures Water Water resources Water resources management Watersheds |
| title | A Scenario-Based Approach for Assessing the Hydrological Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change in the Marboreh Watershed, Iran |
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