The Middle East's Demographic Transition: What Does It Mean?

Today's image of the Middle East is of masses of young disaffected males loitering in hot, densely populated cities. While this may be accurate in many of the region's largest cities, demographers are finding a different story. The important message is the demographic transition occurring across the Middle East. Birth rates are falling, and the baby boom that characterized the region in the 1960s and 1970s has given way to a potentially more favorable situation. The population growth is occurring not in the ranks of the under-15-year-old dependents, but in the working age population (15-64 years). Middle Eastern states have pursued effective family planning policies. It is questioned whether this demographic trend holds the key to a more promising future for the region.