Reservoir Operations under Changing Climate Conditions: Hydropower-Production Perspective
AbstractClimate change has significant effects on the management of complex water resource systems. The objective of this study was to assess climate change effects on reservoir system operations. The assessment was performed using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, four global climate models...
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description | AbstractClimate change has significant effects on the management of complex water resource systems. The objective of this study was to assess climate change effects on reservoir system operations. The assessment was performed using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, four global climate models (GCMs), six downscaling methods, one hydrologic model, and a system dynamics simulation model (SDM). The analyses were conducted for a future time period (2036–2065) and results were compared with the historical time period (1984–2013). The Campbell River basin in British Columbia, Canada, was used as a case study area. The Campbell River basin consists of three reservoirs: Strathcona, Ladore, and John Hart. The results show that the inflow in all three reservoirs decreases during summer and fall, which decreases power production. In addition, it was observed that power production from downstream reservoirs (Ladore and John Hart) will decrease more drastically than the upstream reservoir (Strathcona) in the future. Results show that downscaling models contribute the highest level of uncertainty, which propagates from reservoir inflow to power production. The results of the study show that hydropower reliability will decrease more than 50% for all three reservoirs under future changing climate conditions. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001061 |
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The objective of this study was to assess climate change effects on reservoir system operations. The assessment was performed using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, four global climate models (GCMs), six downscaling methods, one hydrologic model, and a system dynamics simulation model (SDM). The analyses were conducted for a future time period (2036–2065) and results were compared with the historical time period (1984–2013). The Campbell River basin in British Columbia, Canada, was used as a case study area. The Campbell River basin consists of three reservoirs: Strathcona, Ladore, and John Hart. The results show that the inflow in all three reservoirs decreases during summer and fall, which decreases power production. In addition, it was observed that power production from downstream reservoirs (Ladore and John Hart) will decrease more drastically than the upstream reservoir (Strathcona) in the future. Results show that downscaling models contribute the highest level of uncertainty, which propagates from reservoir inflow to power production. The results of the study show that hydropower reliability will decrease more than 50% for all three reservoirs under future changing climate conditions.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0733-9496</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1943-5452</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001061</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New York: American Society of Civil Engineers</publisher><subject>Case studies ; Climate change ; Climate effects ; Climatic conditions ; Computer simulation ; Dynamics ; Emission analysis ; Environmental assessment ; Global climate models ; Greenhouse effect ; Greenhouse gases ; Hydroelectric power ; Hydrologic models ; Hydrology ; Inflow ; Reservoirs ; Resource management ; River basins ; Rivers ; System dynamics ; Technical Papers ; Water inflow ; Water resources ; Water resources management</subject><ispartof>Journal of water resources planning and management, 2019-05, Vol.145 (5)</ispartof><rights>2019 American Society of Civil Engineers</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a390t-a4bac3a64d268f973c8b9241abc5f44171866313f54512ec983e7c36354632673</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a390t-a4bac3a64d268f973c8b9241abc5f44171866313f54512ec983e7c36354632673</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-4698-9929</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttp://ascelibrary.org/doi/pdf/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001061$$EPDF$$P50$$Gasce$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttp://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001061$$EHTML$$P50$$Gasce$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925,76193,76201</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Mandal, Sohom</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Arunkumar, R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Breach, Patrick A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Simonovic, Slobodan P</creatorcontrib><title>Reservoir Operations under Changing Climate Conditions: Hydropower-Production Perspective</title><title>Journal of water resources planning and management</title><description>AbstractClimate change has significant effects on the management of complex water resource systems. The objective of this study was to assess climate change effects on reservoir system operations. The assessment was performed using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, four global climate models (GCMs), six downscaling methods, one hydrologic model, and a system dynamics simulation model (SDM). The analyses were conducted for a future time period (2036–2065) and results were compared with the historical time period (1984–2013). The Campbell River basin in British Columbia, Canada, was used as a case study area. The Campbell River basin consists of three reservoirs: Strathcona, Ladore, and John Hart. The results show that the inflow in all three reservoirs decreases during summer and fall, which decreases power production. In addition, it was observed that power production from downstream reservoirs (Ladore and John Hart) will decrease more drastically than the upstream reservoir (Strathcona) in the future. Results show that downscaling models contribute the highest level of uncertainty, which propagates from reservoir inflow to power production. The results of the study show that hydropower reliability will decrease more than 50% for all three reservoirs under future changing climate conditions.</description><subject>Case studies</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate effects</subject><subject>Climatic conditions</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Dynamics</subject><subject>Emission analysis</subject><subject>Environmental assessment</subject><subject>Global climate models</subject><subject>Greenhouse effect</subject><subject>Greenhouse gases</subject><subject>Hydroelectric power</subject><subject>Hydrologic models</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Inflow</subject><subject>Reservoirs</subject><subject>Resource management</subject><subject>River basins</subject><subject>Rivers</subject><subject>System dynamics</subject><subject>Technical Papers</subject><subject>Water inflow</subject><subject>Water resources</subject><subject>Water resources management</subject><issn>0733-9496</issn><issn>1943-5452</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2019</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp1kM1OwzAQhC0EEqXwDhFc4JBix45j91ZFhSJValVAFSfLdTYlVYmDnRT17UkoPydOu9qd2dV8CF0SPCCYk9vr0WM6vlkuBkQyGsYsjgYY4251hHq_s2PUwwmloWSSn6Iz7zetKMFx1EMvC_DgdrZwwawCp-vClj5oygxckL7qcl2U6yDdFm-6hiC1ZVZ8KYbBZJ85W9kPcOHc2awx3TyYg_MVtP0OztFJrrceLr5rHz3fjZ_SSTid3T-ko2moqcR1qNlKG6o5yyIucplQI1YyYkSvTJwzRhIiOKeE5m0QEoGRgkJiKKcx4zTiCe2jq8Pdytn3BnytNrZxZftSRURIIWIhRKsaHlTGWe8d5KpybSi3VwSrjpdSHUq1XKgOm-qwqW-UrZkfzNob-Dv_4_zf-AlCynhR</recordid><startdate>20190501</startdate><enddate>20190501</enddate><creator>Mandal, Sohom</creator><creator>Arunkumar, R</creator><creator>Breach, Patrick A</creator><creator>Simonovic, Slobodan P</creator><general>American Society of Civil Engineers</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QH</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>SOI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4698-9929</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20190501</creationdate><title>Reservoir Operations under Changing Climate Conditions: Hydropower-Production Perspective</title><author>Mandal, Sohom ; Arunkumar, R ; Breach, Patrick A ; Simonovic, Slobodan P</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a390t-a4bac3a64d268f973c8b9241abc5f44171866313f54512ec983e7c36354632673</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2019</creationdate><topic>Case studies</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate effects</topic><topic>Climatic conditions</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Dynamics</topic><topic>Emission analysis</topic><topic>Environmental assessment</topic><topic>Global climate models</topic><topic>Greenhouse effect</topic><topic>Greenhouse gases</topic><topic>Hydroelectric power</topic><topic>Hydrologic models</topic><topic>Hydrology</topic><topic>Inflow</topic><topic>Reservoirs</topic><topic>Resource management</topic><topic>River basins</topic><topic>Rivers</topic><topic>System dynamics</topic><topic>Technical Papers</topic><topic>Water inflow</topic><topic>Water resources</topic><topic>Water resources management</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Mandal, Sohom</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Arunkumar, R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Breach, Patrick A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Simonovic, Slobodan P</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Aqualine</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Journal of water resources planning and management</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Mandal, Sohom</au><au>Arunkumar, R</au><au>Breach, Patrick A</au><au>Simonovic, Slobodan P</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Reservoir Operations under Changing Climate Conditions: Hydropower-Production Perspective</atitle><jtitle>Journal of water resources planning and management</jtitle><date>2019-05-01</date><risdate>2019</risdate><volume>145</volume><issue>5</issue><issn>0733-9496</issn><eissn>1943-5452</eissn><abstract>AbstractClimate change has significant effects on the management of complex water resource systems. The objective of this study was to assess climate change effects on reservoir system operations. The assessment was performed using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, four global climate models (GCMs), six downscaling methods, one hydrologic model, and a system dynamics simulation model (SDM). The analyses were conducted for a future time period (2036–2065) and results were compared with the historical time period (1984–2013). The Campbell River basin in British Columbia, Canada, was used as a case study area. The Campbell River basin consists of three reservoirs: Strathcona, Ladore, and John Hart. The results show that the inflow in all three reservoirs decreases during summer and fall, which decreases power production. In addition, it was observed that power production from downstream reservoirs (Ladore and John Hart) will decrease more drastically than the upstream reservoir (Strathcona) in the future. Results show that downscaling models contribute the highest level of uncertainty, which propagates from reservoir inflow to power production. The results of the study show that hydropower reliability will decrease more than 50% for all three reservoirs under future changing climate conditions.</abstract><cop>New York</cop><pub>American Society of Civil Engineers</pub><doi>10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001061</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4698-9929</orcidid></addata></record> |
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subjects | Case studies Climate change Climate effects Climatic conditions Computer simulation Dynamics Emission analysis Environmental assessment Global climate models Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Hydroelectric power Hydrologic models Hydrology Inflow Reservoirs Resource management River basins Rivers System dynamics Technical Papers Water inflow Water resources Water resources management |
title | Reservoir Operations under Changing Climate Conditions: Hydropower-Production Perspective |
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