A Spectral Analysis of Coffee Market Oscillations
Virtually all commodity markets exhibit irregular, long-run shifts in deflated product prices. The world coffee economy has noted the existence of fairly slow but somewhat regular coffee price oscillations. Some view the cycle as naturally arising from a free coffee economy, others place the blame f...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | International economic review (Philadelphia) 1979-06, Vol.20 (2), p.495-514 |
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| creator | Gelb, Alan H. |
| description | Virtually all commodity markets exhibit irregular, long-run shifts in deflated product prices. The world coffee economy has noted the existence of fairly slow but somewhat regular coffee price oscillations. Some view the cycle as naturally arising from a free coffee economy, others place the blame for structural disequilibria on the inappropriate use of control policies, generally by producers and national bodies.An examination is made of the auto- and cross-spectral structure characterizing these oscillations, and interpretation is made of their generation using a linearized commodity system model with specification and parameters derived from surveys and econometric estimates. Oscillatory characteristics of a free-market coffee economy result from a distinctive structural characteristic-the separation of producers and consumers into differing currency areas. Recent trends towards export diversification by major coffee producers would lead, with unchanged producer behavior, to even more powerful coffee cycles via smaller exchange rate responses. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.2307/2526496 |
| format | Article |
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Recent trends towards export diversification by major coffee producers would lead, with unchanged producer behavior, to even more powerful coffee cycles via smaller exchange rate responses.</description><subject>Coffee</subject><subject>Consumer economics</subject><subject>Consumer prices</subject><subject>Cycles</subject><subject>Economic fluctuations</subject><subject>Economic modeling</subject><subject>Economic models</subject><subject>Economics</subject><subject>Foreign exchange rates</subject><subject>International economics</subject><subject>Market prices</subject><subject>Markets</subject><subject>Oscillation</subject><subject>Price level changes</subject><subject>Prices</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Supply</subject><issn>0020-6598</issn><issn>1468-2354</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>1979</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>K30</sourceid><recordid>eNp10E9LwzAYBvAgCs4pfoWigqfqm7dJmvc4xvwDkx3Uc0mzBFrrMpPusG9vR3fd6bn8eHh4GLvl8IQFlM8oUQlSZ2zChdI5FlKcswkAQq4k6Ut2lVILAKoQ5YTxWfa5dbaPpstmG9PtU5Oy4LN58N657MPEH9dnq2SbrjN9Ezbpml140yV3c8wp-35ZfM3f8uXq9X0-W-YWS-hzUVNtNWFpaxBI0hvyGtCoteW6rIUHL0tDhEZ4pbldk3fSCORaSa_Nupiyu7F3G8PfzqW-asMuDhNTNSCSyEEO6P4U4khEmktxUI-jsjGkFJ2vtrH5NXFfcagOp1XH0wb5MMo29SGeZP8cJWas</recordid><startdate>19790601</startdate><enddate>19790601</enddate><creator>Gelb, Alan H.</creator><general>The Wharton School of Finance and Commerce University of Pennsylvania, and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association</general><general>University of Pennsylvania, Economics Dept., and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research</general><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>HFIND</scope><scope>IBDFT</scope><scope>K30</scope><scope>PAAUG</scope><scope>PAWHS</scope><scope>PAWZZ</scope><scope>PAXOH</scope><scope>PBHAV</scope><scope>PBQSW</scope><scope>PBYQZ</scope><scope>PCIWU</scope><scope>PCMID</scope><scope>PCZJX</scope><scope>PDGRG</scope><scope>PDWWI</scope><scope>PETMR</scope><scope>PFVGT</scope><scope>PGXDX</scope><scope>PIHIL</scope><scope>PISVA</scope><scope>PJCTQ</scope><scope>PJTMS</scope><scope>PLCHJ</scope><scope>PMHAD</scope><scope>PNQDJ</scope><scope>POUND</scope><scope>PPLAD</scope><scope>PQAPC</scope><scope>PQCAN</scope><scope>PQCMW</scope><scope>PQEME</scope><scope>PQHKH</scope><scope>PQMID</scope><scope>PQNCT</scope><scope>PQNET</scope><scope>PQSCT</scope><scope>PQSET</scope><scope>PSVJG</scope><scope>PVMQY</scope><scope>PZGFC</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope></search><sort><creationdate>19790601</creationdate><title>A Spectral Analysis of Coffee Market Oscillations</title><author>Gelb, Alan H.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c270t-4b9bc8927cb04295fa9f802a6dc187b4f0f57a992a4f681cd9fe5a421865f8ad3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>1979</creationdate><topic>Coffee</topic><topic>Consumer economics</topic><topic>Consumer prices</topic><topic>Cycles</topic><topic>Economic fluctuations</topic><topic>Economic modeling</topic><topic>Economic models</topic><topic>Economics</topic><topic>Foreign exchange rates</topic><topic>International economics</topic><topic>Market prices</topic><topic>Markets</topic><topic>Oscillation</topic><topic>Price level changes</topic><topic>Prices</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>Supply</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Gelb, Alan H.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segment 16</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segment 27</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - 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The world coffee economy has noted the existence of fairly slow but somewhat regular coffee price oscillations. Some view the cycle as naturally arising from a free coffee economy, others place the blame for structural disequilibria on the inappropriate use of control policies, generally by producers and national bodies.An examination is made of the auto- and cross-spectral structure characterizing these oscillations, and interpretation is made of their generation using a linearized commodity system model with specification and parameters derived from surveys and econometric estimates. Oscillatory characteristics of a free-market coffee economy result from a distinctive structural characteristic-the separation of producers and consumers into differing currency areas. Recent trends towards export diversification by major coffee producers would lead, with unchanged producer behavior, to even more powerful coffee cycles via smaller exchange rate responses.</abstract><cop>Philadelphia, Pa</cop><pub>The Wharton School of Finance and Commerce University of Pennsylvania, and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association</pub><doi>10.2307/2526496</doi><tpages>20</tpages></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | International economic review (Philadelphia), 1979-06, Vol.20 (2), p.495-514 |
| issn | 0020-6598 1468-2354 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_218952105 |
| source | Periodicals Index Online; EBSCOhost Business Source Complete; Jstor Complete Legacy |
| subjects | Coffee Consumer economics Consumer prices Cycles Economic fluctuations Economic modeling Economic models Economics Foreign exchange rates International economics Market prices Markets Oscillation Price level changes Prices Statistical analysis Supply |
| title | A Spectral Analysis of Coffee Market Oscillations |
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