Are yield-curve/monetary cycles’ approaches enough to predict recessions?
This paper proposes a new framework that identifies a threshold between the fed funds rate and the 10-year Treasury yield and, when the threshold is breached, the risk of a recession in the near future is significant. Our framework predicted several recessions before the yield curve inversion point/...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Business economics (Cleveland, Ohio) Ohio), 2019-01, Vol.54 (1), p.61-68 |
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| container_title | Business economics (Cleveland, Ohio) |
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| creator | Iqbal, Azhar Bullard, Sam Silvia, John |
| description | This paper proposes a new framework that identifies a threshold between the fed funds rate and the 10-year Treasury yield and, when the threshold is breached, the risk of a recession in the near future is significant. Our framework predicted several recessions before the yield curve inversion point/monetary cycles’ approaches. In addition, our framework accurately forecasted peaks in the S&P 500 index. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1057/s11369-018-0100-6 |
| format | Article |
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| ispartof | Business economics (Cleveland, Ohio), 2019-01, Vol.54 (1), p.61-68 |
| issn | 0007-666X 1554-432X |
| language | eng |
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| source | SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings |
| subjects | Business and Management Business cycles Economic forecasting Economics Economics and Finance Forecasts and trends Market trend/market analysis ORIGINAL ARTICLE Political Economy/Economic Systems Recessions Securities industry Stock market indexes United States Yield Yield curve |
| title | Are yield-curve/monetary cycles’ approaches enough to predict recessions? |
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