Der »Test des Tests« im Handel - eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest

The Ifo Business Climate is an economic indicator calculated by the Ifo Institute from the results of its monthly business survey. The answers to two questions form this indicator: the evaluation of the current business situation and assessments of the six-month business outlook. The interpretation of what precisely is the "business situation" and the "business outlook" is consciously left to the survey participants. In a special survey, conducted in spring 2009, the Ifo Institute for Economic Research examined the factors that form the basis for firms' replies to the monthly business survey. The firms in retailing and wholesaling contacted in this survey participate regularly in the Ifo Business Survey. The results show that in both the assessment of the current business situation as well as in the appraisal of the business outlook, the firms rely on their profit situation and their turnover. The flexibility of the survey questions has proven to be a major advantage of the Ifo Business Survey, allowing assessments to be made of economic activity in various sectors. [PUB ABSTRACT