Expansionary Contractions and Fiscal Free Lunches: Too Good To Be True?

This paper builds a framework to jointly examine the possibilities of both expansionary fiscal contractions (austerity increasing output) and fiscal free lunches (expansions reducing government debt), arguments which in recent debates have been supported by the austerity and stimulus camps, respecti...

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Veröffentlicht in:The Scandinavian journal of economics 2019-01, Vol.121 (1), p.32-54
Hauptverfasser: McManus, Richard, Ozkan, Gulcin, Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid
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creator McManus, Richard
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description This paper builds a framework to jointly examine the possibilities of both expansionary fiscal contractions (austerity increasing output) and fiscal free lunches (expansions reducing government debt), arguments which in recent debates have been supported by the austerity and stimulus camps, respectively. We propose a new metric quantifying the budgetary implications of fiscal action, a key aspect of fiscal policy particularly at the monetary zero lower bound. We find that austerity needs to be highly persistent and credible in order to be expansionary, and stimulus needs to be temporary, responsive, and well-targeted in order to lower debt. We conclude that neither is likely, especially during periods of economic distress.
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source PAIS Index; EBSCOhost Business Source Complete; Wiley Online Library All Journals
subjects Austerity policy
Austerity versus stimulus
Camps
Economic models
Fiscal policy
Lunches
Psychological distress
Public debt
Stimulus
zero lower bound
title Expansionary Contractions and Fiscal Free Lunches: Too Good To Be True?
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