Madden–Julian oscillation changes under anthropogenic warming

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) produces a region of enhanced precipitation that travels eastwards along the Equator in a 40–50 day cycle, perturbing tropical and high-latitude winds, and thereby modulating extreme weather events such as flooding, hurricanes and heat waves. Here, we synthesize current understanding on projected changes in the MJO under anthropogenic warming, demonstrating that MJO-related precipitation variations are likely to increase in intensity, whereas wind variations are likely to increase at a slower rate or even decrease. Nevertheless, future work should address uncertainties in the amplitude of precipitation and wind changes and the impacts of projected SST patterns, with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme weather. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere. This Perspective examines how the MJO may change with anthropogenic warming, revealing a projected increase in MJO-related precipitation.