Depressive Symptoms and Accuracy in the Prediction of Future Events

In two studies, the authors examined the accuracy of dysphoric and nondysphoric individuals' predictions about their future behavior. Participants predicted the occurrence of a variety of everyday events and reported on their occurrence over a period of either 4 (Study 1) or 8 (Study 2) weeks. As expected, dysphoria was unrelated to overall accuracy, but nondysphorics tended to be more accurate in making optimistic predictions and dysphorics tended to be more accurate in making pessimistic predictions. These differences were related to differences between the two dysphoric groups in base rates of reported outcome occurrence and certainty of judgments. The findings did not support depressive realism, the negative biasing effect of dysphoria on future predictions, or the contention that dysphorics are less accurate because they predict either more atypical or overly optimistic outcomes.