Effects of Perceived Control upon Wagering and Attributions in Computer Blackjack

The effects of short-term fluctuations of odds and personal control upon risk-taking behavior in computer blackjack were examined. Although probabilistic models make clear recommendations about optimal play in blackjack (e.g., the basic strategy and card counting), players deviate from optimal play. Those deviations might be explainable by cognitive theories. Risk taking can be explained in terms of irrational cognitions and self-serving evaluations of outcomes; it can also be explained in terms of the available evidence used when people make their decisions. Twelve undergraduate students of the University of Hong Kong played computer blackjack for money. Fluctuations of short-term odds were manipulated as winning or losing streaks, the ability to request extra cards during play was considered to be control of a skill-relevant dimension, and the ability to choose "dealers" was considered to be control of a skill-irrelevant dimension. Recent successful outcomes and the ability to control the skill-relevant factor led to increases in bet size and to stronger self-serving bias in the attribution of the outcomes. Cognitive theories of risk taking that emphasize the evidence available for decisions were supported.