Atmospheric characteristics that induce extreme precipitation in frontal systems over Southeastern Brazil during summer: Observations and atmospheric model simulation

Cold fronts are the most frequent synoptic systems that affect Southeast Brazil during the whole year. The highest frequency of these systems at these latitudes occurs in the months of spring (SON) and winter (JJA), but the highest associated precipitation occurs in the spring (SON) and summer (DJF). Some of these fronts present light rains but others cause heavy precipitation, giving rise to flooding and landslides, mainly in the summer. Composites of the two cases (light and heavy rainfall) are analysed for the summer season. Large‐scale and regional features are shown to discuss the differences in precipitation. Regional differences are seen in the position and intensity of low pressure and postfrontal high. The differences are also associated with the humidity flux and convergence over the region. The main difference at high levels is the position of the frontal trough, which is close to the region in the wet cases and displaced to the ocean in the dry cases. Features of the Southern Annular Mode and Madden–Julian Oscillation show opposite patterns in the two cases. These modes of variability can modulate extra‐tropical wave trains over the Pacific, which have different behaviour downstream, over South America and South Atlantic Ocean. The eddy kinetic energy is stronger over Southeastern Pacific and Southern South America, and wave activity shows energy propagation towards the continent in the wet cases. Similar analyses with results of a global atmospheric model show that the general atmospheric characteristics of a frontal system are reproduced, as the temperature gradient, the wind confluence and the ridge‐trough pair associated with the frontal system. The model represents the differences with respect to moisture flux and the frontal trough position, but underestimates the moisture convergence, eddy kinetic energy and wave activity, in the wet cases. Composites of cases classified with percentiles of 5 and 95% (dry and wet) are analysed. Regional differences between them are seen in the humidity flux and convergence over the region and in the position and intensity of pressure at sea level. Differences in extra‐tropical wave trains and kinetic energy over the Pacific affect the position and intensity of the frontal trough at high levels. The Center of Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research Atmospheric Global Circulation Model reproduces the general characteristics of a frontal system, but underestimates the m