Improving the usefulness of the Purchasing Managers’ Index

A structural break in the GDP growth—PMI relationship occurred in 2004Q1. The break is likely the result of a secular slowdown in average GDP growth. PMI-based forecasts of GDP growth that ignore the break are biased. Modeling the break eliminates forecast bias, reduces root mean square forecast err...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:	Business economics (Cleveland, Ohio) Ohio), 2018-10, Vol.53 (4), p.195-201
1. Verfasser:	Pelaez, Rolando F
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Analysis Business and Management Economic growth Economics Economics and Finance Forecasts and trends GDP Gross Domestic Product Market trend/market analysis ORIGINAL ARTICLE Political Economy/Economic Systems Purchasing Purchasing managers index
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
Tags:	Tag hinzufügen Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!

Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:	A structural break in the GDP growth—PMI relationship occurred in 2004Q1. The break is likely the result of a secular slowdown in average GDP growth. PMI-based forecasts of GDP growth that ignore the break are biased. Modeling the break eliminates forecast bias, reduces root mean square forecast error, and significantly increases the signaling power of the PMI.
ISSN:	0007-666X 1554-432X
DOI:	10.1057/s11369-018-0092-2