Demonstration of a viable quantitative theory for interplanetary type II radio bursts

Between 29 November and 1 December 2013 the two widely separated spacecraft STEREO A and B observed a long lasting, intermittent, type II radio burst for the extended frequency range ≈ 4 MHz to 30 kHz, including an intensification when the shock wave of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) reached STEREO A. We demonstrate for the first time our ability to quantitatively and accurately simulate the fundamental (F) and harmonic (H) emission of type II bursts from the higher corona (near 11 solar radii) to 1 AU. Our modeling requires the combination of data-driven three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations for the CME and plasma background, carried out with the BATS-R-US code, with an analytic quantitative kinetic model for both F and H radio emission, including the electron reflection at the shock, growth of Langmuir waves and radio waves, and the radiations propagation to an arbitrary observer. The intensities and frequencies of the observed radio emissions vary hugely by factors ≈ 106 and ≈ 103, respectively; the theoretical predictions are impressively accurate, being typically in error by less than a factor of 10 and 20 %, for both STEREO A and B. We also obtain accurate predictions for the timing and characteristics of the shock and local radio onsets at STEREO A, the lack of such onsets at STEREO B, and the z-component of the magnetic field at STEREO A ahead of the shock, and in the sheath. Very strong support is provided by these multiple agreements for the theory, the efficacy of the BATS-R-US code, and the vision of using type IIs and associated data-theory iterations to predict whether a CME will impact Earth’s magnetosphere and drive space weather events.