You cannot fight fire with fire: a demographic model suggests alternative approaches to manage multiple herbicide‐resistant Avena fatua

Summary Multiple herbicide‐resistant (MHR) weed populations pose significant agronomic and economic threats and demand the development and implementation of ecologically based tactics for sustainable management. We investigated the influence of nitrogen fertiliser rate (56, 112, 168, or 224 kg N ha−1) and spring wheat seeding density (67.3 kg ha−1 or 101 kg ha−1) on the demography of one herbicide susceptible and two MHR Avena fatua populations under two cropping systems (continuous cropping and crop‐fallow rotation). To represent a wide range of environmental conditions, data were obtained in field conditions over 3 years (2013–2015). A stochastic density‐dependent population dynamics model was constructed using the demographic data to project A. fatua populations. Elasticity analysis was used to identify demographic processes with negative impacts on population growth. In both cropping systems, MHR seedbank densities were negatively impacted by increasing nitrogen fertilisation rate and wheat density. Overall, MHR seedbank densities were larger in the wheat‐fallow compared with the continuous wheat cropping system and seedbank densities stabilised near zero in the high nitrogen and high spring wheat seeding rate treatment. In both cropping systems, density‐dependent seed production was the most influential parameter impacting population growth rate. This study demonstrated that while the short‐term impact of weed management tactics can be investigated by field experiments, evaluation of long‐term consequences requires the use of population dynamics models. Demographic models, such as the one constructed here, will aid in selecting ecologically based weed management tactics, such as appropriate resource availability and modification to crop competitive ability to reduce the impact of MHR.