Optimization of the issuance of evacuation orders under evolving hurricane conditions
•Stochastic programming model to optimize issuance of evacuation orders.•Solution procedure based on progressive hedging.•Large-scale realistic case study presented. This paper develops a bi-level programming model to optimize the issuance of evacuation orders with explicit consideration of (i) the...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Transportation research. Part B: methodological 2017-01, Vol.95, p.285-304 |
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| container_title | Transportation research. Part B: methodological |
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| creator | Yi, Wenqi Nozick, Linda Davidson, Rachel Blanton, Brian Colle, Brian |
| description | •Stochastic programming model to optimize issuance of evacuation orders.•Solution procedure based on progressive hedging.•Large-scale realistic case study presented.
This paper develops a bi-level programming model to optimize the issuance of evacuation orders with explicit consideration of (i) the highly uncertain evolution of the storm, and (ii) the complexity of the behavioral reaction to evolving storm conditions. A solution procedure based on progressive hedging is developed. A realistic case study for the eastern portion of the state of North Carolina is presented. Through the case study we demonstrate (1) the value of developing an evacuation order policy based on the evolution of the storm in contrast to a static policy; (2) the richness in the insights that can be provided by linking the behavioral models for evacuation decision-making with dynamic traffic assignment-based network flow models in a hurricane context; and (3) the computational promise of a progressive hedging-based solution procedure to solve large instances of the model. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.trb.2016.10.008 |
| format | Article |
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This paper develops a bi-level programming model to optimize the issuance of evacuation orders with explicit consideration of (i) the highly uncertain evolution of the storm, and (ii) the complexity of the behavioral reaction to evolving storm conditions. A solution procedure based on progressive hedging is developed. A realistic case study for the eastern portion of the state of North Carolina is presented. Through the case study we demonstrate (1) the value of developing an evacuation order policy based on the evolution of the storm in contrast to a static policy; (2) the richness in the insights that can be provided by linking the behavioral models for evacuation decision-making with dynamic traffic assignment-based network flow models in a hurricane context; and (3) the computational promise of a progressive hedging-based solution procedure to solve large instances of the model.</abstract><cop>Oxford</cop><pub>Elsevier Ltd</pub><doi>10.1016/j.trb.2016.10.008</doi><tpages>20</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Transportation research. Part B: methodological, 2017-01, Vol.95, p.285-304 |
| issn | 0191-2615 1879-2367 |
| language | eng |
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| source | Access via ScienceDirect (Elsevier) |
| subjects | Case studies Computer applications Decision making Dynamic traffic assignment Evacuation Evacuations & rescues Evolution Hedging Hurricane evacuation modeling Hurricanes Multi-stage stochastic programming Optimization Progressive hedging Storms Traffic flow Traffic models |
| title | Optimization of the issuance of evacuation orders under evolving hurricane conditions |
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