Do Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Offending Vary Across Indigenous and White Youth Followed Prospectively Through Full Adulthood?

Although Indigenous youth are overrepresented in justice systems across North America, Australia, and New Zealand, explanations for this overrepresentation are principally theoretical as data at the individual level are lacking. Risk for offending among Indigenous youth may be overestimated because of their typically more negative socioeconomic outcomes tied to historical injustices perpetrated by governments across different nations. Data on 403 adolescent offenders followed from ages 12 to 29 were used to examine offending trajectories and associated risk and protective factors across Indigenous and White participants. A greater number of social adversities characterized Indigenous youth, yet they did not differ from White youth in their likelihood of assignment to the highest rate offending trajectory. Culturally sensitive assessment of risk for offending is recommended.