An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments
This analysis examines the influence of economic forecast errors and political and institutional factors on the general fund revenue forecast errors of 23 states for the period 1978 to 1987. During this period states in the sample underestimated their revenue by only 0.5%. This modest tendency towar...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | International journal of forecasting 1989, Vol.5 (3), p.321-331 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 331 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 3 |
| container_start_page | 321 |
| container_title | International journal of forecasting |
| container_volume | 5 |
| creator | Cassidy, Glenn Kamlet, Mark S. Nagin, Daniel S. |
| description | This analysis examines the influence of economic forecast errors and political and institutional factors on the general fund revenue forecast errors of 23 states for the period 1978 to 1987. During this period states in the sample underestimated their revenue by only 0.5%. This modest tendency toward conservative forecasting is further reduced after controlling for economic uncertainty. Moreover, the analysis reveals no systematic relationship between revenue forecast errors and state political and institutional factors. Thus, the results cast substantial doubt on the prevailing belief as found in the literature, that state revenue forecasts have a pronounced conservative bias. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/0169-2070(89)90036-8 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_207376368</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><els_id>0169207089900368</els_id><sourcerecordid>1305796074</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c524t-71f651e674c7b5a11d19070131d2f6c1a124060bd62eaa446d43f609fe0887383</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kEFP3DAQha2qldhC_wEHi17aQ2AmTuzkUgkhCotW6oWeLa8zKV4RJ7W9K_bf47DV3srhaS7vvZn5GDtHuERAeZXVFiUo-Na031sAIYvmA1tgo8qiKQE-ssXRcsI-x7gBgFohLtjDtec0TC44a545vZjBeZPc6PnY87UzkTvPA-3Ib4n3YyBrYop8vecxmUT8z7ij4AfyKZ6xT715jvTl3zxlv3_ePt7cF6tfd8ub61Vh67JKhcJe1khSVVata4PYYZvvQoFd2UuLBssKJKw7WZIxVSW7SvQS2p6gaZRoxCm7OPROYfy7pZj0ZtwGn1fq_KBQUsjZ9PV_JhT591aCqrKrOrhsGGMM1OspuMGEvUbQM1o9c5trQTetfkOr5_LlIRZoInvMEJHzKUPSOy1MnbXPwjYnhXFZImuaZ4laCNRPachdPw5dlJHtHAUdrSNvqXMZdtLd6N4_5hWnspbB</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1305796074</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments</title><source>RePEc</source><source>Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals</source><source>Periodicals Index Online</source><creator>Cassidy, Glenn ; Kamlet, Mark S. ; Nagin, Daniel S.</creator><creatorcontrib>Cassidy, Glenn ; Kamlet, Mark S. ; Nagin, Daniel S.</creatorcontrib><description>This analysis examines the influence of economic forecast errors and political and institutional factors on the general fund revenue forecast errors of 23 states for the period 1978 to 1987. During this period states in the sample underestimated their revenue by only 0.5%. This modest tendency toward conservative forecasting is further reduced after controlling for economic uncertainty. Moreover, the analysis reveals no systematic relationship between revenue forecast errors and state political and institutional factors. Thus, the results cast substantial doubt on the prevailing belief as found in the literature, that state revenue forecasts have a pronounced conservative bias.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0169-2070</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1872-8200</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/0169-2070(89)90036-8</identifier><identifier>CODEN: IJFOEK</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>Bias ; Earnings forecasting ; Economic forecasting ; Economic uncertainty ; Effects ; Errors ; Forecasting accuracy and bias ; Forecasting techniques ; Political and institutional influences ; Politics ; Regression analysis ; State government ; State revenue forecasting ; Studies ; Variables</subject><ispartof>International journal of forecasting, 1989, Vol.5 (3), p.321-331</ispartof><rights>1989</rights><rights>Copyright Elsevier Sequoia S.A. 1989</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c524t-71f651e674c7b5a11d19070131d2f6c1a124060bd62eaa446d43f609fe0887383</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c524t-71f651e674c7b5a11d19070131d2f6c1a124060bd62eaa446d43f609fe0887383</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0169207089900368$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,3537,3994,4010,27846,27900,27901,27902,65306</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeintfor/v_3a5_3ay_3a1989_3ai_3a3_3ap_3a321-331.htm$$DView record in RePEc$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Cassidy, Glenn</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kamlet, Mark S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nagin, Daniel S.</creatorcontrib><title>An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments</title><title>International journal of forecasting</title><description>This analysis examines the influence of economic forecast errors and political and institutional factors on the general fund revenue forecast errors of 23 states for the period 1978 to 1987. During this period states in the sample underestimated their revenue by only 0.5%. This modest tendency toward conservative forecasting is further reduced after controlling for economic uncertainty. Moreover, the analysis reveals no systematic relationship between revenue forecast errors and state political and institutional factors. Thus, the results cast substantial doubt on the prevailing belief as found in the literature, that state revenue forecasts have a pronounced conservative bias.</description><subject>Bias</subject><subject>Earnings forecasting</subject><subject>Economic forecasting</subject><subject>Economic uncertainty</subject><subject>Effects</subject><subject>Errors</subject><subject>Forecasting accuracy and bias</subject><subject>Forecasting techniques</subject><subject>Political and institutional influences</subject><subject>Politics</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>State government</subject><subject>State revenue forecasting</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Variables</subject><issn>0169-2070</issn><issn>1872-8200</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>1989</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>X2L</sourceid><sourceid>K30</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kEFP3DAQha2qldhC_wEHi17aQ2AmTuzkUgkhCotW6oWeLa8zKV4RJ7W9K_bf47DV3srhaS7vvZn5GDtHuERAeZXVFiUo-Na031sAIYvmA1tgo8qiKQE-ssXRcsI-x7gBgFohLtjDtec0TC44a545vZjBeZPc6PnY87UzkTvPA-3Ib4n3YyBrYop8vecxmUT8z7ij4AfyKZ6xT715jvTl3zxlv3_ePt7cF6tfd8ub61Vh67JKhcJe1khSVVata4PYYZvvQoFd2UuLBssKJKw7WZIxVSW7SvQS2p6gaZRoxCm7OPROYfy7pZj0ZtwGn1fq_KBQUsjZ9PV_JhT591aCqrKrOrhsGGMM1OspuMGEvUbQM1o9c5trQTetfkOr5_LlIRZoInvMEJHzKUPSOy1MnbXPwjYnhXFZImuaZ4laCNRPachdPw5dlJHtHAUdrSNvqXMZdtLd6N4_5hWnspbB</recordid><startdate>1989</startdate><enddate>1989</enddate><creator>Cassidy, Glenn</creator><creator>Kamlet, Mark S.</creator><creator>Nagin, Daniel S.</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><general>Elsevier</general><general>Elsevier Sequoia S.A</general><scope>DKI</scope><scope>X2L</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>HNJIA</scope><scope>K30</scope><scope>PAAUG</scope><scope>PAWHS</scope><scope>PAWZZ</scope><scope>PAXOH</scope><scope>PBHAV</scope><scope>PBQSW</scope><scope>PBYQZ</scope><scope>PCIWU</scope><scope>PCMID</scope><scope>PCZJX</scope><scope>PDGRG</scope><scope>PDWWI</scope><scope>PETMR</scope><scope>PFVGT</scope><scope>PGXDX</scope><scope>PIHIL</scope><scope>PISVA</scope><scope>PJCTQ</scope><scope>PJTMS</scope><scope>PLCHJ</scope><scope>PMHAD</scope><scope>PNQDJ</scope><scope>POUND</scope><scope>PPLAD</scope><scope>PQAPC</scope><scope>PQCAN</scope><scope>PQCMW</scope><scope>PQEME</scope><scope>PQHKH</scope><scope>PQMID</scope><scope>PQNCT</scope><scope>PQNET</scope><scope>PQSCT</scope><scope>PQSET</scope><scope>PSVJG</scope><scope>PVMQY</scope><scope>PZGFC</scope></search><sort><creationdate>1989</creationdate><title>An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments</title><author>Cassidy, Glenn ; Kamlet, Mark S. ; Nagin, Daniel S.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c524t-71f651e674c7b5a11d19070131d2f6c1a124060bd62eaa446d43f609fe0887383</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>1989</creationdate><topic>Bias</topic><topic>Earnings forecasting</topic><topic>Economic forecasting</topic><topic>Economic uncertainty</topic><topic>Effects</topic><topic>Errors</topic><topic>Forecasting accuracy and bias</topic><topic>Forecasting techniques</topic><topic>Political and institutional influences</topic><topic>Politics</topic><topic>Regression analysis</topic><topic>State government</topic><topic>State revenue forecasting</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Variables</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Cassidy, Glenn</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kamlet, Mark S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nagin, Daniel S.</creatorcontrib><collection>RePEc IDEAS</collection><collection>RePEc</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segment 20</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - West</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - MEA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - West</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segments 1-50</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - MEA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - West</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - MEA</collection><jtitle>International journal of forecasting</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Cassidy, Glenn</au><au>Kamlet, Mark S.</au><au>Nagin, Daniel S.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments</atitle><jtitle>International journal of forecasting</jtitle><date>1989</date><risdate>1989</risdate><volume>5</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>321</spage><epage>331</epage><pages>321-331</pages><issn>0169-2070</issn><eissn>1872-8200</eissn><coden>IJFOEK</coden><abstract>This analysis examines the influence of economic forecast errors and political and institutional factors on the general fund revenue forecast errors of 23 states for the period 1978 to 1987. During this period states in the sample underestimated their revenue by only 0.5%. This modest tendency toward conservative forecasting is further reduced after controlling for economic uncertainty. Moreover, the analysis reveals no systematic relationship between revenue forecast errors and state political and institutional factors. Thus, the results cast substantial doubt on the prevailing belief as found in the literature, that state revenue forecasts have a pronounced conservative bias.</abstract><cop>Amsterdam</cop><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><doi>10.1016/0169-2070(89)90036-8</doi><tpages>11</tpages></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0169-2070 |
| ispartof | International journal of forecasting, 1989, Vol.5 (3), p.321-331 |
| issn | 0169-2070 1872-8200 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_207376368 |
| source | RePEc; Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals; Periodicals Index Online |
| subjects | Bias Earnings forecasting Economic forecasting Economic uncertainty Effects Errors Forecasting accuracy and bias Forecasting techniques Political and institutional influences Politics Regression analysis State government State revenue forecasting Studies Variables |
| title | An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-28T14%3A39%3A55IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=An%20empirical%20examination%20of%20bias%20in%20revenue%20forecasts%20by%20state%20governments&rft.jtitle=International%20journal%20of%20forecasting&rft.au=Cassidy,%20Glenn&rft.date=1989&rft.volume=5&rft.issue=3&rft.spage=321&rft.epage=331&rft.pages=321-331&rft.issn=0169-2070&rft.eissn=1872-8200&rft.coden=IJFOEK&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016/0169-2070(89)90036-8&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E1305796074%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1305796074&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_els_id=0169207089900368&rfr_iscdi=true |