How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts

Experience curves are widely used to predict the cost benefits of increasing the deployment of a technology. But how good are such forecasts? Can one predict their accuracy a priori? In this paper we answer these questions by developing a method to make distributional forecasts for experience curves...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Bibliographische Detailangaben

Veröffentlicht in:	Technological forecasting & social change 2018-03, Vol.128, p.104-117
Hauptverfasser:	Lafond, François, Bailey, Aimee Gotway, Bakker, Jan David, Rebois, Dylan, Zadourian, Rubina, McSharry, Patrick, Farmer, J. Doyne
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Experience curves Forecasting Information technology Photovoltaic cells Pricing Technological change Technological planning Technological progress Technology Test procedures Time series
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
Tags:	Tag hinzufügen Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!