Predicting the potential impact of climate change on the declining agroforestry species Borassus aethiopum Mart. in Benin: a mixture of geostatistical and SDM approach
Predicted effects of climate change (CC) on plant species distribution have raised concerns on their conservation and domestication. Appropriate stand density may enhance species ability to adapt to CC. Therefore, combining species distribution modeling (SDM) and spatial pattern of density should pr...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Agroforestry systems 2019-08, Vol.93 (4), p.1513-1530 |
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| creator | Salako, Valère Kolawolé Vihotogbé, Romaric Houéhanou, Thierry Sodé, Idelphonse Akoeugnigan Glèlè Kakaï, Romain |
| description | Predicted effects of climate change (CC) on plant species distribution have raised concerns on their conservation and domestication. Appropriate stand density may enhance species ability to adapt to CC. Therefore, combining species distribution modeling (SDM) and spatial pattern of density should provide insightful information for setting conservation actions. We combined geostatistical and SDM techniques to assess (1) current tree density spatial pattern and its relationship with bioclimatic zone (humid, sub-humid, and semi-arid), land-use type (protected areas vs. agrosystems), and soil type (eight types), and (2) present-day and future distributions of suitable habitats under low-RCP4.5 and high-RCP8.5 emissions scenarios for
Borassus aethiopum
, a declining agroforestry palm in Benin. Data were obtained from 2880 one-ha plots. Semivariogram and kriging were used to model spatial patterns of density while Maximum Entropy was used for SDM. Tree density followed an isotropic spatial model with a range of 2.15 km, indicating extremely fragmented density pattern. Tree density was 8-times higher in protected areas (PAs, 68.6 ± 5.09 trees ha
−1
) than in agrosystems (8.4 ± 0.31 trees ha
−1
) and greater on ferruginous soils. Though 80% of the country was currently highly suitable with similar trend for PAs and agrosystems, future predictions showed major habitat loss (20–61%), particularly under RCP8.5. While changes were similar between PAs and agrosystems, the decrease in habitat suitability was pronounced in the semi-arid zone where the species is currently widely-distributed with higher abundance. Very weak link was found between present-day abundance and present-day and future distribution. It is concluded that
B. aethiopum
has a fragmented density pattern and will be sensitive to CC. In-situ and circa-situ conservations or orchards establishment were suggested depending on the projected changes and the bioclimatic zone. The approach used here is exemplary for other agroforestry tree species. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10457-018-0262-2 |
| format | Article |
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Borassus aethiopum
, a declining agroforestry palm in Benin. Data were obtained from 2880 one-ha plots. Semivariogram and kriging were used to model spatial patterns of density while Maximum Entropy was used for SDM. Tree density followed an isotropic spatial model with a range of 2.15 km, indicating extremely fragmented density pattern. Tree density was 8-times higher in protected areas (PAs, 68.6 ± 5.09 trees ha
−1
) than in agrosystems (8.4 ± 0.31 trees ha
−1
) and greater on ferruginous soils. Though 80% of the country was currently highly suitable with similar trend for PAs and agrosystems, future predictions showed major habitat loss (20–61%), particularly under RCP8.5. While changes were similar between PAs and agrosystems, the decrease in habitat suitability was pronounced in the semi-arid zone where the species is currently widely-distributed with higher abundance. Very weak link was found between present-day abundance and present-day and future distribution. It is concluded that
B. aethiopum
has a fragmented density pattern and will be sensitive to CC. In-situ and circa-situ conservations or orchards establishment were suggested depending on the projected changes and the bioclimatic zone. The approach used here is exemplary for other agroforestry tree species.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0167-4366</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1572-9680</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10457-018-0262-2</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Abundance ; Agriculture ; Agroforestry ; Arid regions ; Arid zones ; Bioclimatology ; Biomedical and Life Sciences ; Biometeorology ; Borassus aethiopum ; Climate change ; Climate effects ; Conservation ; Current distribution ; Density ; Domestication ; Entropy ; Environmental impact ; Forestry ; Geostatistics ; Habitat loss ; Habitats ; Herbivores ; Impact prediction ; Kriging interpolation ; Land use ; Life Sciences ; Mathematical models ; Maximum entropy ; Orchards ; Plant species ; Protected areas ; Soil types ; Species ; Trees</subject><ispartof>Agroforestry systems, 2019-08, Vol.93 (4), p.1513-1530</ispartof><rights>Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018</rights><rights>Agroforestry Systems is a copyright of Springer, (2018). All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c316t-3fb7bc3b27fc9eb5028368772aeef43c47436c1da8427056ad0cfdf9e6bf2c4e3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c316t-3fb7bc3b27fc9eb5028368772aeef43c47436c1da8427056ad0cfdf9e6bf2c4e3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-7817-3687</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10457-018-0262-2$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10457-018-0262-2$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,27905,27906,41469,42538,51300</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Salako, Valère Kolawolé</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vihotogbé, Romaric</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Houéhanou, Thierry</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sodé, Idelphonse Akoeugnigan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Glèlè Kakaï, Romain</creatorcontrib><title>Predicting the potential impact of climate change on the declining agroforestry species Borassus aethiopum Mart. in Benin: a mixture of geostatistical and SDM approach</title><title>Agroforestry systems</title><addtitle>Agroforest Syst</addtitle><description>Predicted effects of climate change (CC) on plant species distribution have raised concerns on their conservation and domestication. Appropriate stand density may enhance species ability to adapt to CC. Therefore, combining species distribution modeling (SDM) and spatial pattern of density should provide insightful information for setting conservation actions. We combined geostatistical and SDM techniques to assess (1) current tree density spatial pattern and its relationship with bioclimatic zone (humid, sub-humid, and semi-arid), land-use type (protected areas vs. agrosystems), and soil type (eight types), and (2) present-day and future distributions of suitable habitats under low-RCP4.5 and high-RCP8.5 emissions scenarios for
Borassus aethiopum
, a declining agroforestry palm in Benin. Data were obtained from 2880 one-ha plots. Semivariogram and kriging were used to model spatial patterns of density while Maximum Entropy was used for SDM. Tree density followed an isotropic spatial model with a range of 2.15 km, indicating extremely fragmented density pattern. Tree density was 8-times higher in protected areas (PAs, 68.6 ± 5.09 trees ha
−1
) than in agrosystems (8.4 ± 0.31 trees ha
−1
) and greater on ferruginous soils. Though 80% of the country was currently highly suitable with similar trend for PAs and agrosystems, future predictions showed major habitat loss (20–61%), particularly under RCP8.5. While changes were similar between PAs and agrosystems, the decrease in habitat suitability was pronounced in the semi-arid zone where the species is currently widely-distributed with higher abundance. Very weak link was found between present-day abundance and present-day and future distribution. It is concluded that
B. aethiopum
has a fragmented density pattern and will be sensitive to CC. In-situ and circa-situ conservations or orchards establishment were suggested depending on the projected changes and the bioclimatic zone. The approach used here is exemplary for other agroforestry tree species.</description><subject>Abundance</subject><subject>Agriculture</subject><subject>Agroforestry</subject><subject>Arid regions</subject><subject>Arid zones</subject><subject>Bioclimatology</subject><subject>Biomedical and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Biometeorology</subject><subject>Borassus aethiopum</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate effects</subject><subject>Conservation</subject><subject>Current distribution</subject><subject>Density</subject><subject>Domestication</subject><subject>Entropy</subject><subject>Environmental impact</subject><subject>Forestry</subject><subject>Geostatistics</subject><subject>Habitat loss</subject><subject>Habitats</subject><subject>Herbivores</subject><subject>Impact prediction</subject><subject>Kriging interpolation</subject><subject>Land use</subject><subject>Life Sciences</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Maximum entropy</subject><subject>Orchards</subject><subject>Plant species</subject><subject>Protected areas</subject><subject>Soil types</subject><subject>Species</subject><subject>Trees</subject><issn>0167-4366</issn><issn>1572-9680</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2019</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kU-LFDEQxYMoOK5-AG8FnnutpLuTHm_uuv6BXRTUc6hOV2ayzHTaJA3uJ_JrmnEET54KiverR70nxEuJlxLRvM4Su940KIcGlVaNeiQ2sjeq2eoBH4sNSm2artX6qXiW8z0ibrUZNuLXl8RTcCXMOyh7hiUWnkugA4TjQq5A9OAO4UiFwe1p3jHE-Y9y4rqfTxztUvQxcS7pAfLCLnCGq5go5zUDcdmHuKxHuKNULiHMcMWVewMEx_CzrIlPJjuOuVAJuQRX3Wme4Ou7O6BlSZHc_rl44umQ-cXfeSG-v7_5dv2xuf384dP129vGtVKXpvWjGV07KuPdlsce1dDqwRhFzL5rXWdqBk5ONHTKYK9pQucnv2U9euU6bi_Eq_PdavtjrS_Z-7imuVpahb3sUHVGV5U8q1yKOSf2dkk1o_RgJdpTH_bch6192FMfVlVGnZlctTXH9O_y_6HfjUORQA</recordid><startdate>20190801</startdate><enddate>20190801</enddate><creator>Salako, Valère Kolawolé</creator><creator>Vihotogbé, Romaric</creator><creator>Houéhanou, Thierry</creator><creator>Sodé, Idelphonse Akoeugnigan</creator><creator>Glèlè Kakaï, Romain</creator><general>Springer Netherlands</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7T7</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>SOI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7817-3687</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20190801</creationdate><title>Predicting the potential impact of climate change on the declining agroforestry species Borassus aethiopum Mart. in Benin: a mixture of geostatistical and SDM approach</title><author>Salako, Valère Kolawolé ; Vihotogbé, Romaric ; Houéhanou, Thierry ; Sodé, Idelphonse Akoeugnigan ; Glèlè Kakaï, Romain</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c316t-3fb7bc3b27fc9eb5028368772aeef43c47436c1da8427056ad0cfdf9e6bf2c4e3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2019</creationdate><topic>Abundance</topic><topic>Agriculture</topic><topic>Agroforestry</topic><topic>Arid regions</topic><topic>Arid zones</topic><topic>Bioclimatology</topic><topic>Biomedical and Life Sciences</topic><topic>Biometeorology</topic><topic>Borassus aethiopum</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate effects</topic><topic>Conservation</topic><topic>Current distribution</topic><topic>Density</topic><topic>Domestication</topic><topic>Entropy</topic><topic>Environmental impact</topic><topic>Forestry</topic><topic>Geostatistics</topic><topic>Habitat loss</topic><topic>Habitats</topic><topic>Herbivores</topic><topic>Impact prediction</topic><topic>Kriging interpolation</topic><topic>Land use</topic><topic>Life Sciences</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Maximum entropy</topic><topic>Orchards</topic><topic>Plant species</topic><topic>Protected areas</topic><topic>Soil types</topic><topic>Species</topic><topic>Trees</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Salako, Valère Kolawolé</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vihotogbé, Romaric</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Houéhanou, Thierry</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sodé, Idelphonse Akoeugnigan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Glèlè Kakaï, Romain</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Industrial and Applied Microbiology Abstracts (Microbiology A)</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Database</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Agroforestry systems</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Salako, Valère Kolawolé</au><au>Vihotogbé, Romaric</au><au>Houéhanou, Thierry</au><au>Sodé, Idelphonse Akoeugnigan</au><au>Glèlè Kakaï, Romain</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Predicting the potential impact of climate change on the declining agroforestry species Borassus aethiopum Mart. in Benin: a mixture of geostatistical and SDM approach</atitle><jtitle>Agroforestry systems</jtitle><stitle>Agroforest Syst</stitle><date>2019-08-01</date><risdate>2019</risdate><volume>93</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>1513</spage><epage>1530</epage><pages>1513-1530</pages><issn>0167-4366</issn><eissn>1572-9680</eissn><abstract>Predicted effects of climate change (CC) on plant species distribution have raised concerns on their conservation and domestication. Appropriate stand density may enhance species ability to adapt to CC. Therefore, combining species distribution modeling (SDM) and spatial pattern of density should provide insightful information for setting conservation actions. We combined geostatistical and SDM techniques to assess (1) current tree density spatial pattern and its relationship with bioclimatic zone (humid, sub-humid, and semi-arid), land-use type (protected areas vs. agrosystems), and soil type (eight types), and (2) present-day and future distributions of suitable habitats under low-RCP4.5 and high-RCP8.5 emissions scenarios for
Borassus aethiopum
, a declining agroforestry palm in Benin. Data were obtained from 2880 one-ha plots. Semivariogram and kriging were used to model spatial patterns of density while Maximum Entropy was used for SDM. Tree density followed an isotropic spatial model with a range of 2.15 km, indicating extremely fragmented density pattern. Tree density was 8-times higher in protected areas (PAs, 68.6 ± 5.09 trees ha
−1
) than in agrosystems (8.4 ± 0.31 trees ha
−1
) and greater on ferruginous soils. Though 80% of the country was currently highly suitable with similar trend for PAs and agrosystems, future predictions showed major habitat loss (20–61%), particularly under RCP8.5. While changes were similar between PAs and agrosystems, the decrease in habitat suitability was pronounced in the semi-arid zone where the species is currently widely-distributed with higher abundance. Very weak link was found between present-day abundance and present-day and future distribution. It is concluded that
B. aethiopum
has a fragmented density pattern and will be sensitive to CC. In-situ and circa-situ conservations or orchards establishment were suggested depending on the projected changes and the bioclimatic zone. The approach used here is exemplary for other agroforestry tree species.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><doi>10.1007/s10457-018-0262-2</doi><tpages>18</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7817-3687</orcidid></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0167-4366 |
| ispartof | Agroforestry systems, 2019-08, Vol.93 (4), p.1513-1530 |
| issn | 0167-4366 1572-9680 |
| language | eng |
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| source | Springer Nature - Complete Springer Journals |
| subjects | Abundance Agriculture Agroforestry Arid regions Arid zones Bioclimatology Biomedical and Life Sciences Biometeorology Borassus aethiopum Climate change Climate effects Conservation Current distribution Density Domestication Entropy Environmental impact Forestry Geostatistics Habitat loss Habitats Herbivores Impact prediction Kriging interpolation Land use Life Sciences Mathematical models Maximum entropy Orchards Plant species Protected areas Soil types Species Trees |
| title | Predicting the potential impact of climate change on the declining agroforestry species Borassus aethiopum Mart. in Benin: a mixture of geostatistical and SDM approach |
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