Risk assessment of the Groningen geothermal potential: From seismic to reservoir uncertainty using a discrete parameter analysis

•Subsurface parameter uncertainty risks are assessed at the surface exploration phase.•Qualitative risk is derived through a sensitivity analysis.•Quantitative results are generated through 4536 unique 3D reservoir simulations.•Results are based on a streamlined workflow from seismic interpretation to reservoir.•Aquifer pressure depletion challenges producer pump specification. Geothermal exploitation is subject to several uncertainties, even in settings with high data availability, adding to project risk. Uncertainty can stem from the reservoir’s initial state, as well as from the geological and operational parameters. The interplay between these aspects entails irreducible risk prior to exploration drilling. Consequently it is difficult to construct an indicative qualitative and quantitative depiction of the most prominent facets (e.g. pressure, permeability). This paper shows the classification of known unknowns to risks, while also providing numerical results. Starting from seismic data and arriving at a reservoir model using a discrete parameter analysis we assess the risks and uncertainties of a geothermal project near the city of Groningen (NE Netherlands). By simulating all combinations of the considered parameters, their relative importance can be mapped out. Findings suggest that the unique regime of possible pressure depletion due to neighbouring gas production can highly impact the feasibility of the project. Results demonstrate how an in depth analysis at the exploration phase can direct future efforts towards the most significant elements. Although the numerical results are field specific, the methodology can be readily applied to different locations.