Technology roadmapping: A methodological proposition to refine Delphi results
This study outlines a methodology to refine Delphi results as part of the process to design a technology roadmap. The objectives of this paper are: (a) present a methodology to design a TRM using Delphi associated with other techniques (morphological analysis, decision matrix, interviews, and priori...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Technological forecasting & social change 2018-01, Vol.126, p.194-206 |
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creator | Bloem da Silveira Junior, Luiz A. Vasconcellos, Eduardo Vasconcellos Guedes, Liliana Guedes, Luis Fernando A. Costa, Renato Machado |
description | This study outlines a methodology to refine Delphi results as part of the process to design a technology roadmap. The objectives of this paper are: (a) present a methodology to design a TRM using Delphi associated with other techniques (morphological analysis, decision matrix, interviews, and prioritization analysis), and (b) demonstrate and discuss the application of proposed TRM methodology to define alternative materials aiming to reduce the weight of structural shock absorbers. The field research consisted of a case study approach in the Brazilian subsidiary of an Italian auto parts MNC combined with action research methodology. The main contributions of this paper are: a) The proposition of a methodology to refine Delphi results as part of the process to design a technology roadmap (TRM), including a decision matrix, interviews with external experts, and a prioritization analysis and b) The action research provided good quality results as well as an opportunity to test the methodology in a company environment during eight months; this is not common to find in the literature.
•We propose management techniques to refine Delphi results of a Technology Roadmap.•Action research provided high quality data during eight months of a TRM project.•We discuss lessons learned of proposed methodology applied to Magneti Marelli COFAP.•Visual graphic triangulation of Delphi and decision matrix was key to TRM design.•The decision matrix can contribute to integrate technical and business views in TRM. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.08.011 |
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•We propose management techniques to refine Delphi results of a Technology Roadmap.•Action research provided high quality data during eight months of a TRM project.•We discuss lessons learned of proposed methodology applied to Magneti Marelli COFAP.•Visual graphic triangulation of Delphi and decision matrix was key to TRM design.•The decision matrix can contribute to integrate technical and business views in TRM.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0040-1625</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1873-5509</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.08.011</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New York: Elsevier Inc</publisher><subject>Action research ; Automotive parts ; Case studies ; Decision analysis ; Decision matrix ; Delphi method ; Delphi technique ; Methodology ; Morphological analysis ; Research methodology ; Road design ; Shock absorbers ; Studies ; Technological planning ; Technology ; Technology forecasting ; Technology roadmap ; Test procedures ; Weight reduction</subject><ispartof>Technological forecasting & social change, 2018-01, Vol.126, p.194-206</ispartof><rights>2017 Elsevier Inc.</rights><rights>Copyright Elsevier Science Ltd. Jan 2018</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c372t-797d5892a18a7593f40dd6f273090b24a362689cb0270cf71ae294e47bfab3463</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c372t-797d5892a18a7593f40dd6f273090b24a362689cb0270cf71ae294e47bfab3463</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-6706-5402 ; 0000-0001-8643-1503 ; 0000-0003-3557-6344</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516306734$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,3537,27901,27902,33751,65306</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Bloem da Silveira Junior, Luiz A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vasconcellos, Eduardo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vasconcellos Guedes, Liliana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guedes, Luis Fernando A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Costa, Renato Machado</creatorcontrib><title>Technology roadmapping: A methodological proposition to refine Delphi results</title><title>Technological forecasting & social change</title><description>This study outlines a methodology to refine Delphi results as part of the process to design a technology roadmap. The objectives of this paper are: (a) present a methodology to design a TRM using Delphi associated with other techniques (morphological analysis, decision matrix, interviews, and prioritization analysis), and (b) demonstrate and discuss the application of proposed TRM methodology to define alternative materials aiming to reduce the weight of structural shock absorbers. The field research consisted of a case study approach in the Brazilian subsidiary of an Italian auto parts MNC combined with action research methodology. The main contributions of this paper are: a) The proposition of a methodology to refine Delphi results as part of the process to design a technology roadmap (TRM), including a decision matrix, interviews with external experts, and a prioritization analysis and b) The action research provided good quality results as well as an opportunity to test the methodology in a company environment during eight months; this is not common to find in the literature.
•We propose management techniques to refine Delphi results of a Technology Roadmap.•Action research provided high quality data during eight months of a TRM project.•We discuss lessons learned of proposed methodology applied to Magneti Marelli COFAP.•Visual graphic triangulation of Delphi and decision matrix was key to TRM design.•The decision matrix can contribute to integrate technical and business views in TRM.</description><subject>Action research</subject><subject>Automotive parts</subject><subject>Case studies</subject><subject>Decision analysis</subject><subject>Decision matrix</subject><subject>Delphi method</subject><subject>Delphi technique</subject><subject>Methodology</subject><subject>Morphological analysis</subject><subject>Research methodology</subject><subject>Road design</subject><subject>Shock absorbers</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Technological planning</subject><subject>Technology</subject><subject>Technology forecasting</subject><subject>Technology roadmap</subject><subject>Test procedures</subject><subject>Weight reduction</subject><issn>0040-1625</issn><issn>1873-5509</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>BHHNA</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkM1OwzAQhC0EEqXwCigS54S1ndgOJyr-pSIu5Ww5jtM6SuNgu0h9e1wVzpxWq53Znf0QusZQYMDsti-i0ZvOeVMQwLwAUQDGJ2iGBad5VUF9imYAJeSYkeocXYTQAwCngs3Q-yp5Rze49T7zTrVbNU12XN9li2xr4sa1h5HVasgm7yYXbLRuzKLLvOnsaLJHM0wbm7qwG2K4RGedGoK5-q1z9Pn8tHp4zZcfL28Pi2WuKScx5zVvK1EThYXiVU27EtqWdYRTqKEhpaKMMFHrBggH3XGsDKlLU_KmUw0tGZ2jm-PeFOprZ0KUvdv5MZ2UCYEAgimjScWOKu1dCCmwnLzdKr-XGOQBnezlH7qDj0sQMqFLxvuj0aQfvq3xMmhrRm1a642OsnX2vxU_09N61w</recordid><startdate>201801</startdate><enddate>201801</enddate><creator>Bloem da Silveira Junior, Luiz A.</creator><creator>Vasconcellos, Eduardo</creator><creator>Vasconcellos Guedes, Liliana</creator><creator>Guedes, Luis Fernando A.</creator><creator>Costa, Renato Machado</creator><general>Elsevier Inc</general><general>Elsevier Science Ltd</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TB</scope><scope>7U4</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>BHHNA</scope><scope>DWI</scope><scope>F28</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>JQ2</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>WZK</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6706-5402</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8643-1503</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3557-6344</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>201801</creationdate><title>Technology roadmapping: A methodological proposition to refine Delphi results</title><author>Bloem da Silveira Junior, Luiz A. ; Vasconcellos, Eduardo ; Vasconcellos Guedes, Liliana ; Guedes, Luis Fernando A. ; Costa, Renato Machado</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c372t-797d5892a18a7593f40dd6f273090b24a362689cb0270cf71ae294e47bfab3463</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2018</creationdate><topic>Action research</topic><topic>Automotive parts</topic><topic>Case studies</topic><topic>Decision analysis</topic><topic>Decision matrix</topic><topic>Delphi method</topic><topic>Delphi technique</topic><topic>Methodology</topic><topic>Morphological analysis</topic><topic>Research methodology</topic><topic>Road design</topic><topic>Shock absorbers</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Technological planning</topic><topic>Technology</topic><topic>Technology forecasting</topic><topic>Technology roadmap</topic><topic>Test procedures</topic><topic>Weight reduction</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Bloem da Silveira Junior, Luiz A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vasconcellos, Eduardo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vasconcellos Guedes, Liliana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guedes, Luis Fernando A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Costa, Renato Machado</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Mechanical & Transportation Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts (pre-2017)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts</collection><collection>ANTE: Abstracts in New Technology & Engineering</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Computer Science Collection</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts (Ovid)</collection><jtitle>Technological forecasting & social change</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Bloem da Silveira Junior, Luiz A.</au><au>Vasconcellos, Eduardo</au><au>Vasconcellos Guedes, Liliana</au><au>Guedes, Luis Fernando A.</au><au>Costa, Renato Machado</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Technology roadmapping: A methodological proposition to refine Delphi results</atitle><jtitle>Technological forecasting & social change</jtitle><date>2018-01</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>126</volume><spage>194</spage><epage>206</epage><pages>194-206</pages><issn>0040-1625</issn><eissn>1873-5509</eissn><abstract>This study outlines a methodology to refine Delphi results as part of the process to design a technology roadmap. 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•We propose management techniques to refine Delphi results of a Technology Roadmap.•Action research provided high quality data during eight months of a TRM project.•We discuss lessons learned of proposed methodology applied to Magneti Marelli COFAP.•Visual graphic triangulation of Delphi and decision matrix was key to TRM design.•The decision matrix can contribute to integrate technical and business views in TRM.</abstract><cop>New York</cop><pub>Elsevier Inc</pub><doi>10.1016/j.techfore.2017.08.011</doi><tpages>13</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6706-5402</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8643-1503</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3557-6344</orcidid></addata></record> |
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subjects | Action research Automotive parts Case studies Decision analysis Decision matrix Delphi method Delphi technique Methodology Morphological analysis Research methodology Road design Shock absorbers Studies Technological planning Technology Technology forecasting Technology roadmap Test procedures Weight reduction |
title | Technology roadmapping: A methodological proposition to refine Delphi results |
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