Can experts really assess future technology success? A neural network and Bayesian analysis of early stage technology proposals

This paper compares experts' assessments to a set of structural variables to determine whether each effectively predicts technology success. Using 69 homeland security and defense-related technologies, expert reviewers scored each technology on various dimensions as part of a government grant f...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of high technology management research 2007, Vol.17 (2), p.125-137
Hauptverfasser:	Galbraith, Craig S., DeNoble, Alex F., Ehrlich, Sanford B., Kline, Doug M.
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Alliances Bayesian analysis Expert assessment Forecasting Neural networks Predictions Studies Success Technology Technology commercialization
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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