Forecasting Real Inventories and the Anomaly of Money Illusion
While the transmission mechanism of inventory behavior in the business cycle has been studied, less effort has been devoted to applied forecasting of inventory change. Inventory fluctuations have accounted for a sizable portion of the changes in U.S. GDP during recessions over the past fifty years....
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Business economics (Cleveland, Ohio) Ohio), 2008-01, Vol.43 (1), p.19-30 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 30 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 1 |
| container_start_page | 19 |
| container_title | Business economics (Cleveland, Ohio) |
| container_volume | 43 |
| creator | Larrain, Maurice Joseph, Anthony Singh, Eshwar |
| description | While the transmission mechanism of inventory behavior in the business cycle has been studied, less effort has been devoted to applied forecasting of inventory change. Inventory fluctuations have accounted for a sizable portion of the changes in U.S. GDP during recessions over the past fifty years. In this paper, we report on out-of-sample forecasts of manufacturing and trade inventories generated by regression and neural network methodology. Our forecasting model is Metzlerian in approach, in that the divergence between actual and targeted sales is hypothesized as the primary cause of inventory imbalance. Our forecasts also rely on the slow adjustment of inventory investment to sales surprises. However, the likely presence of money illusion is a caveat to users, and we address several distortions it introduces to inventory management measures.Business Economics (2008) 43, 19–30; doi:10.2145/20080102 |
| doi_str_mv | 10.2145/20080102 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_199831629</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>1473418581</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c217m-261f2d77380c8f4a94ddff308adf803a9269162353681136f138b5b2d005ff73</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNo9kF9LwzAUxYMoOKfgFxCCT75U86dN0xdhDOcGE0H2sLeQtonraJOatIN-e1Oqezj3cOF3zoULwD1GzwTHyQtBiCOMyAWY4SSJo5iS_SWYIYTSiDG2vwY33h_DihglM_C6sk4V0neV-YZfStZwY07KdNZVykNpStgdFFwY28h6gFbDD2vUADd13fvKmltwpWXt1d2fz8Fu9bZbrqPt5_tmudhGBcFpExGGNSnTlHJUcB3LLC5LrSnistQcUZkRlmFGaEIZx5gyjSnPk5yUCCVap3QOHqfa1tmfXvlOHG3vTLgocJZxGrJZgJ4mqHDWe6e0aF3VSDcIjMT4G_H_m4CuJ9SpVhVnrpV13ntVWHESVMY0jCFojAWrgnBQO3omKBKHrglVD1OVkV3v1LkrV2OM0F8dcnZ_</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>199831629</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Forecasting Real Inventories and the Anomaly of Money Illusion</title><source>RePEc</source><source>Business Source Complete</source><source>JSTOR Archive Collection A-Z Listing</source><source>SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings</source><creator>Larrain, Maurice ; Joseph, Anthony ; Singh, Eshwar</creator><creatorcontrib>Larrain, Maurice ; Joseph, Anthony ; Singh, Eshwar</creatorcontrib><description>While the transmission mechanism of inventory behavior in the business cycle has been studied, less effort has been devoted to applied forecasting of inventory change. Inventory fluctuations have accounted for a sizable portion of the changes in U.S. GDP during recessions over the past fifty years. In this paper, we report on out-of-sample forecasts of manufacturing and trade inventories generated by regression and neural network methodology. Our forecasting model is Metzlerian in approach, in that the divergence between actual and targeted sales is hypothesized as the primary cause of inventory imbalance. Our forecasts also rely on the slow adjustment of inventory investment to sales surprises. However, the likely presence of money illusion is a caveat to users, and we address several distortions it introduces to inventory management measures.Business Economics (2008) 43, 19–30; doi:10.2145/20080102</description><identifier>ISSN: 0007-666X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1554-432X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.2145/20080102</identifier><identifier>CODEN: BECODS</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan</publisher><subject>Business cycles ; Costs ; Economic models ; Forecasting ; GDP ; Gross Domestic Product ; Interest rates ; Inventory ; Inventory management ; Macroeconomics ; Neural networks ; Recessions ; Regression analysis ; Sales forecasting ; Stocks ; Studies</subject><ispartof>Business economics (Cleveland, Ohio), 2008-01, Vol.43 (1), p.19-30</ispartof><rights>Copyright Springer Science & Business Media Jan 2008</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c217m-261f2d77380c8f4a94ddff308adf803a9269162353681136f138b5b2d005ff73</citedby></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,4006,4022,27922,27923,27924</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://econpapers.repec.org/article/palbuseco/v_3a43_3ay_3a2008_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a19-30.htm$$DView record in RePEc$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Larrain, Maurice</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Joseph, Anthony</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Singh, Eshwar</creatorcontrib><title>Forecasting Real Inventories and the Anomaly of Money Illusion</title><title>Business economics (Cleveland, Ohio)</title><description>While the transmission mechanism of inventory behavior in the business cycle has been studied, less effort has been devoted to applied forecasting of inventory change. Inventory fluctuations have accounted for a sizable portion of the changes in U.S. GDP during recessions over the past fifty years. In this paper, we report on out-of-sample forecasts of manufacturing and trade inventories generated by regression and neural network methodology. Our forecasting model is Metzlerian in approach, in that the divergence between actual and targeted sales is hypothesized as the primary cause of inventory imbalance. Our forecasts also rely on the slow adjustment of inventory investment to sales surprises. However, the likely presence of money illusion is a caveat to users, and we address several distortions it introduces to inventory management measures.Business Economics (2008) 43, 19–30; doi:10.2145/20080102</description><subject>Business cycles</subject><subject>Costs</subject><subject>Economic models</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>GDP</subject><subject>Gross Domestic Product</subject><subject>Interest rates</subject><subject>Inventory</subject><subject>Inventory management</subject><subject>Macroeconomics</subject><subject>Neural networks</subject><subject>Recessions</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Sales forecasting</subject><subject>Stocks</subject><subject>Studies</subject><issn>0007-666X</issn><issn>1554-432X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2008</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>X2L</sourceid><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNo9kF9LwzAUxYMoOKfgFxCCT75U86dN0xdhDOcGE0H2sLeQtonraJOatIN-e1Oqezj3cOF3zoULwD1GzwTHyQtBiCOMyAWY4SSJo5iS_SWYIYTSiDG2vwY33h_DihglM_C6sk4V0neV-YZfStZwY07KdNZVykNpStgdFFwY28h6gFbDD2vUADd13fvKmltwpWXt1d2fz8Fu9bZbrqPt5_tmudhGBcFpExGGNSnTlHJUcB3LLC5LrSnistQcUZkRlmFGaEIZx5gyjSnPk5yUCCVap3QOHqfa1tmfXvlOHG3vTLgocJZxGrJZgJ4mqHDWe6e0aF3VSDcIjMT4G_H_m4CuJ9SpVhVnrpV13ntVWHESVMY0jCFojAWrgnBQO3omKBKHrglVD1OVkV3v1LkrV2OM0F8dcnZ_</recordid><startdate>200801</startdate><enddate>200801</enddate><creator>Larrain, Maurice</creator><creator>Joseph, Anthony</creator><creator>Singh, Eshwar</creator><general>Palgrave Macmillan</general><scope>DKI</scope><scope>X2L</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>0U~</scope><scope>1-H</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>87Z</scope><scope>88C</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8BF</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8FL</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AXJJW</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FREBS</scope><scope>FRNLG</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>K60</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>K8~</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>L.0</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>M0Q</scope><scope>M0T</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQBZA</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>S0X</scope></search><sort><creationdate>200801</creationdate><title>Forecasting Real Inventories and the Anomaly of Money Illusion</title><author>Larrain, Maurice ; Joseph, Anthony ; Singh, Eshwar</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c217m-261f2d77380c8f4a94ddff308adf803a9269162353681136f138b5b2d005ff73</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2008</creationdate><topic>Business cycles</topic><topic>Costs</topic><topic>Economic models</topic><topic>Forecasting</topic><topic>GDP</topic><topic>Gross Domestic Product</topic><topic>Interest rates</topic><topic>Inventory</topic><topic>Inventory management</topic><topic>Macroeconomics</topic><topic>Neural networks</topic><topic>Recessions</topic><topic>Regression analysis</topic><topic>Sales forecasting</topic><topic>Stocks</topic><topic>Studies</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Larrain, Maurice</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Joseph, Anthony</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Singh, Eshwar</creatorcontrib><collection>RePEc IDEAS</collection><collection>RePEc</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Global News & ABI/Inform Professional</collection><collection>Trade PRO</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (PDF only)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Healthcare Administration Database (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>European Business Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Asian & European Business Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>eLibrary</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Asian & European Business Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Corporate)</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection</collection><collection>DELNET Management Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Advanced</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Standard</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global</collection><collection>European Business Database</collection><collection>Healthcare Administration Database</collection><collection>Research Library</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>SIRS Editorial</collection><jtitle>Business economics (Cleveland, Ohio)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Larrain, Maurice</au><au>Joseph, Anthony</au><au>Singh, Eshwar</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Forecasting Real Inventories and the Anomaly of Money Illusion</atitle><jtitle>Business economics (Cleveland, Ohio)</jtitle><date>2008-01</date><risdate>2008</risdate><volume>43</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>19</spage><epage>30</epage><pages>19-30</pages><issn>0007-666X</issn><eissn>1554-432X</eissn><coden>BECODS</coden><abstract>While the transmission mechanism of inventory behavior in the business cycle has been studied, less effort has been devoted to applied forecasting of inventory change. Inventory fluctuations have accounted for a sizable portion of the changes in U.S. GDP during recessions over the past fifty years. In this paper, we report on out-of-sample forecasts of manufacturing and trade inventories generated by regression and neural network methodology. Our forecasting model is Metzlerian in approach, in that the divergence between actual and targeted sales is hypothesized as the primary cause of inventory imbalance. Our forecasts also rely on the slow adjustment of inventory investment to sales surprises. However, the likely presence of money illusion is a caveat to users, and we address several distortions it introduces to inventory management measures.Business Economics (2008) 43, 19–30; doi:10.2145/20080102</abstract><cop>Basingstoke</cop><pub>Palgrave Macmillan</pub><doi>10.2145/20080102</doi><tpages>12</tpages></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0007-666X |
| ispartof | Business economics (Cleveland, Ohio), 2008-01, Vol.43 (1), p.19-30 |
| issn | 0007-666X 1554-432X |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_199831629 |
| source | RePEc; Business Source Complete; JSTOR Archive Collection A-Z Listing; SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings |
| subjects | Business cycles Costs Economic models Forecasting GDP Gross Domestic Product Interest rates Inventory Inventory management Macroeconomics Neural networks Recessions Regression analysis Sales forecasting Stocks Studies |
| title | Forecasting Real Inventories and the Anomaly of Money Illusion |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-11T12%3A38%3A21IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Forecasting%20Real%20Inventories%20and%20the%20Anomaly%20of%20Money%20Illusion&rft.jtitle=Business%20economics%20(Cleveland,%20Ohio)&rft.au=Larrain,%20Maurice&rft.date=2008-01&rft.volume=43&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=19&rft.epage=30&rft.pages=19-30&rft.issn=0007-666X&rft.eissn=1554-432X&rft.coden=BECODS&rft_id=info:doi/10.2145/20080102&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E1473418581%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=199831629&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true |