Nitrogen fertilizer recommendations based on plant sensing and Bayesian updating

Methods are available to predict nitrogen needs of winter wheat based on plant sensing, but adoption rates by producers are low. Current algorithms that provide nitrogen recommendations based on plant sensing implicitly assume that parameters are estimated without error. A Bayesian updating method w...

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Veröffentlicht in:Precision agriculture 2018-02, Vol.19 (1), p.79-92
Hauptverfasser: McFadden, Brandon R., Brorsen, B. Wade, Raun, William R.
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Raun, William R.
description Methods are available to predict nitrogen needs of winter wheat based on plant sensing, but adoption rates by producers are low. Current algorithms that provide nitrogen recommendations based on plant sensing implicitly assume that parameters are estimated without error. A Bayesian updating method was developed that can incorporate precision plant sensing information and is simple enough that it could be computed on-the-go. The method can consider producers prior information and can account for parameter uncertainty. Bayesian updating gives higher nitrogen recommendations than plant sensing recommendations using a plug-in method. These recommendations increase net returns over the previous recommendations, but not enough to make plant sensing profitable in this scenario.
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subjects Agriculture
Atmospheric Sciences
Bayesian analysis
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Computer Science
Detection
Error detection
Life Sciences
Nitrogen
Parameter estimation
Parameter uncertainty
Physics
Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry
Soil Science & Conservation
Statistics for Engineering
Wheat
Winter wheat
title Nitrogen fertilizer recommendations based on plant sensing and Bayesian updating
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