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[...]this is all the more true in the case of trading in agricultural commodities for reasons galore: one, theoretical analysis reveals that the real income of the agricultural commodity producers falls steeply because of the relatively inelastic demand that these commodities enjoy owing to which tr...
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description | [...]this is all the more true in the case of trading in agricultural commodities for reasons galore: one, theoretical analysis reveals that the real income of the agricultural commodity producers falls steeply because of the relatively inelastic demand that these commodities enjoy owing to which traders often find it difficult to offset price movements with volume changes; two, the unpredictable price shocks that mostly emanate from previous year's production/consumption-decisions cause extra volatility in commodity prices; three, a shock-producing reduction in supply leading to a sharp increase in prices, followed by a slow or rapid decrease in price; and four, commodity price cycles are mostly of flat bottoms with occasional peaks, which cumulatively exposes producers to the dual problem of lower returns and higher risks. Taking the spot prices and closing futures prices of near month and next to near month of four important agricultural commodities, viz., coriander, soybean, castor seed and wheat, from NCDEX Ltd. for eight years, the authors have studied the relationship between cash prices and futures prices by employing Johansen's test of cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality tests. Moving onto the last paper of the issue, "Understanding Credit Risk in Securitization and Measures to Build Effective Securitization Markets", we have its author, Nikhil Garg, examining the role of securitization in the 2008 global financial crisis by taking Lehman Brothers and Northern Rock as test cases, and offering policy suggestions for the healthy growth of securitization market. |
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subjects | Agricultural commodities Commodity prices Economic models Equity Equity funds Futures market Hedging Liberalization Mutual funds Performance evaluation Securitization Volatility |
title | FOCUS |
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