Long‐Term Geomagnetically Induced Current Observations From New Zealand: Peak Current Estimates for Extreme Geomagnetic Storms
Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) observations made in New Zealand over 14 years show induction effects associated with a rapidly varying horizontal magnetic field (dBH/dt) during geomagnetic storms. This study analyzes the GIC observations in order to estimate the impact of extreme storms as a...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Space Weather 2017-11, Vol.15 (11), p.1447-1460 |
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| creator | Rodger, Craig J. Mac Manus, Daniel H. Dalzell, Michael Thomson, Alan W. P. Clarke, Ellen Petersen, Tanja Clilverd, Mark A. Divett, Tim |
| description | Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) observations made in New Zealand over 14 years show induction effects associated with a rapidly varying horizontal magnetic field (dBH/dt) during geomagnetic storms. This study analyzes the GIC observations in order to estimate the impact of extreme storms as a hazard to the power system in New Zealand. Analysis is undertaken of GIC in transformer number six in Islington, Christchurch (ISL M6), which had the highest observed currents during the 6 November 2001 storm. Using previously published values of 3,000 nT/min as a representation of an extreme storm with 100 year return period, induced currents of ~455 A were estimated for Islington (with the 95% confidence interval range being ~155–605 A). For 200 year return periods using 5,000 nT/min, current estimates reach ~755 A (confidence interval range 155–910 A). GIC measurements from the much shorter data set collected at transformer number 4 in Halfway Bush, Dunedin, (HWB T4), found induced currents to be consistently a factor of 3 higher than at Islington, suggesting equivalent extreme storm effects of ~460–1,815 A (100 year return) and ~460–2,720 A (200 year return). An estimate was undertaken of likely failure levels for single‐phase transformers, such as HWB T4 when it failed during the 6 November 2001 geomagnetic storm, identifying that induced currents of ~100 A can put such transformer types at risk of damage. Detailed modeling of the New Zealand power system is therefore required to put this regional analysis into a global context.
Key Points
Analysis of a 14 year data set of GIC in a transformer in Islington, New Zealand, shows peaks correlated with local H′
Peak GIC values are very poorly correlated with global geomagnetic indices (ap, Kp, and aa*), and weakly correlated with local ak index values
Estimated peak GIC at Islington for a 100 year return period geomagnetic storm is ~155–605 A, and ~155–910 A for 200 years |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/2017SW001691 |
| format | Article |
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Key Points
Analysis of a 14 year data set of GIC in a transformer in Islington, New Zealand, shows peaks correlated with local H′
Peak GIC values are very poorly correlated with global geomagnetic indices (ap, Kp, and aa*), and weakly correlated with local ak index values
Estimated peak GIC at Islington for a 100 year return period geomagnetic storm is ~155–605 A, and ~155–910 A for 200 years</description><identifier>ISSN: 1542-7390</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1539-4964</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1542-7390</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/2017SW001691</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: John Wiley & Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>Confidence intervals ; Correlation ; Electric currents ; extreme storms ; Extreme weather ; Geomagnetic storms ; geomagnetically induced currents ; Geomagnetism ; Magnetic fields ; Magnetic induction ; Magnetic storms ; New Zealand ; Phase transitions ; Regional analysis ; Regional planning ; space weather ; Storm effects ; Storms ; Transformers</subject><ispartof>Space Weather, 2017-11, Vol.15 (11), p.1447-1460</ispartof><rights>2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3446-e569a320546a55d2ccba4ffd48244c8aa6b51403ca1abbe69f70a98aa524e8293</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3446-e569a320546a55d2ccba4ffd48244c8aa6b51403ca1abbe69f70a98aa524e8293</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-3891-6765 ; 0000-0002-7388-1529 ; 0000-0002-6770-2707 ; 0000-0002-7677-5158 ; 0000-0003-0778-4250</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2F2017SW001691$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2F2017SW001691$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Rodger, Craig J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mac Manus, Daniel H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dalzell, Michael</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Thomson, Alan W. P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Clarke, Ellen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Petersen, Tanja</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Clilverd, Mark A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Divett, Tim</creatorcontrib><title>Long‐Term Geomagnetically Induced Current Observations From New Zealand: Peak Current Estimates for Extreme Geomagnetic Storms</title><title>Space Weather</title><description>Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) observations made in New Zealand over 14 years show induction effects associated with a rapidly varying horizontal magnetic field (dBH/dt) during geomagnetic storms. This study analyzes the GIC observations in order to estimate the impact of extreme storms as a hazard to the power system in New Zealand. Analysis is undertaken of GIC in transformer number six in Islington, Christchurch (ISL M6), which had the highest observed currents during the 6 November 2001 storm. Using previously published values of 3,000 nT/min as a representation of an extreme storm with 100 year return period, induced currents of ~455 A were estimated for Islington (with the 95% confidence interval range being ~155–605 A). For 200 year return periods using 5,000 nT/min, current estimates reach ~755 A (confidence interval range 155–910 A). GIC measurements from the much shorter data set collected at transformer number 4 in Halfway Bush, Dunedin, (HWB T4), found induced currents to be consistently a factor of 3 higher than at Islington, suggesting equivalent extreme storm effects of ~460–1,815 A (100 year return) and ~460–2,720 A (200 year return). An estimate was undertaken of likely failure levels for single‐phase transformers, such as HWB T4 when it failed during the 6 November 2001 geomagnetic storm, identifying that induced currents of ~100 A can put such transformer types at risk of damage. Detailed modeling of the New Zealand power system is therefore required to put this regional analysis into a global context.
Key Points
Analysis of a 14 year data set of GIC in a transformer in Islington, New Zealand, shows peaks correlated with local H′
Peak GIC values are very poorly correlated with global geomagnetic indices (ap, Kp, and aa*), and weakly correlated with local ak index values
Estimated peak GIC at Islington for a 100 year return period geomagnetic storm is ~155–605 A, and ~155–910 A for 200 years</description><subject>Confidence intervals</subject><subject>Correlation</subject><subject>Electric currents</subject><subject>extreme storms</subject><subject>Extreme weather</subject><subject>Geomagnetic storms</subject><subject>geomagnetically induced currents</subject><subject>Geomagnetism</subject><subject>Magnetic fields</subject><subject>Magnetic induction</subject><subject>Magnetic storms</subject><subject>New Zealand</subject><subject>Phase transitions</subject><subject>Regional analysis</subject><subject>Regional planning</subject><subject>space weather</subject><subject>Storm effects</subject><subject>Storms</subject><subject>Transformers</subject><issn>1542-7390</issn><issn>1539-4964</issn><issn>1542-7390</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kNFKwzAUhoMoOKd3PkDAW6tJmqaLdzK2ORgqbDLwpqTp6ehsm5mkzt3tEXxGn8SOiezKq3M4fPz_-X-ELim5oYSwW0ZoPJ0TQoWkR6hDI86COJTk-GA_RWfOLVuaR4x30HZi6sX39msGtsIjMJVa1OALrcpyg8d11mjIcL-xFmqPn1IH9kP5wtQOD62p8COs8SuoUtXZHX4G9fbHDpwvKuXB4dxYPPj0Fio4dMBTb2zlztFJrkoHF7-zi16Gg1n_IZg8jcb9-0mgQ85FAJGQKmQk4kJFUca0ThXP84z3GOe6p5RII8pJqBVVaQpC5jFRsr23KaHHZNhFV3vdlTXvDTifLE1j69YyoTIWRNIw3FHXe0pb45yFPFnZNobdJJQku46Tw45bnO3xdVHC5l82mc4H7ftMhD982H-L</recordid><startdate>201711</startdate><enddate>201711</enddate><creator>Rodger, Craig J.</creator><creator>Mac Manus, Daniel H.</creator><creator>Dalzell, Michael</creator><creator>Thomson, Alan W. 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P. ; Clarke, Ellen ; Petersen, Tanja ; Clilverd, Mark A. ; Divett, Tim</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3446-e569a320546a55d2ccba4ffd48244c8aa6b51403ca1abbe69f70a98aa524e8293</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>Confidence intervals</topic><topic>Correlation</topic><topic>Electric currents</topic><topic>extreme storms</topic><topic>Extreme weather</topic><topic>Geomagnetic storms</topic><topic>geomagnetically induced currents</topic><topic>Geomagnetism</topic><topic>Magnetic fields</topic><topic>Magnetic induction</topic><topic>Magnetic storms</topic><topic>New Zealand</topic><topic>Phase transitions</topic><topic>Regional analysis</topic><topic>Regional planning</topic><topic>space weather</topic><topic>Storm effects</topic><topic>Storms</topic><topic>Transformers</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Rodger, Craig J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mac Manus, Daniel H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dalzell, Michael</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Thomson, Alan W. P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Clarke, Ellen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Petersen, Tanja</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Clilverd, Mark A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Divett, Tim</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><jtitle>Space Weather</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Rodger, Craig J.</au><au>Mac Manus, Daniel H.</au><au>Dalzell, Michael</au><au>Thomson, Alan W. P.</au><au>Clarke, Ellen</au><au>Petersen, Tanja</au><au>Clilverd, Mark A.</au><au>Divett, Tim</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Long‐Term Geomagnetically Induced Current Observations From New Zealand: Peak Current Estimates for Extreme Geomagnetic Storms</atitle><jtitle>Space Weather</jtitle><date>2017-11</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>15</volume><issue>11</issue><spage>1447</spage><epage>1460</epage><pages>1447-1460</pages><issn>1542-7390</issn><issn>1539-4964</issn><eissn>1542-7390</eissn><abstract>Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) observations made in New Zealand over 14 years show induction effects associated with a rapidly varying horizontal magnetic field (dBH/dt) during geomagnetic storms. This study analyzes the GIC observations in order to estimate the impact of extreme storms as a hazard to the power system in New Zealand. Analysis is undertaken of GIC in transformer number six in Islington, Christchurch (ISL M6), which had the highest observed currents during the 6 November 2001 storm. Using previously published values of 3,000 nT/min as a representation of an extreme storm with 100 year return period, induced currents of ~455 A were estimated for Islington (with the 95% confidence interval range being ~155–605 A). For 200 year return periods using 5,000 nT/min, current estimates reach ~755 A (confidence interval range 155–910 A). GIC measurements from the much shorter data set collected at transformer number 4 in Halfway Bush, Dunedin, (HWB T4), found induced currents to be consistently a factor of 3 higher than at Islington, suggesting equivalent extreme storm effects of ~460–1,815 A (100 year return) and ~460–2,720 A (200 year return). An estimate was undertaken of likely failure levels for single‐phase transformers, such as HWB T4 when it failed during the 6 November 2001 geomagnetic storm, identifying that induced currents of ~100 A can put such transformer types at risk of damage. Detailed modeling of the New Zealand power system is therefore required to put this regional analysis into a global context.
Key Points
Analysis of a 14 year data set of GIC in a transformer in Islington, New Zealand, shows peaks correlated with local H′
Peak GIC values are very poorly correlated with global geomagnetic indices (ap, Kp, and aa*), and weakly correlated with local ak index values
Estimated peak GIC at Islington for a 100 year return period geomagnetic storm is ~155–605 A, and ~155–910 A for 200 years</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</pub><doi>10.1002/2017SW001691</doi><tpages>14</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3891-6765</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7388-1529</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6770-2707</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7677-5158</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0778-4250</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Confidence intervals Correlation Electric currents extreme storms Extreme weather Geomagnetic storms geomagnetically induced currents Geomagnetism Magnetic fields Magnetic induction Magnetic storms New Zealand Phase transitions Regional analysis Regional planning space weather Storm effects Storms Transformers |
| title | Long‐Term Geomagnetically Induced Current Observations From New Zealand: Peak Current Estimates for Extreme Geomagnetic Storms |
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