Dairy supply response under stochastic trend and seasonality
Developing a dairy supply model assuming deterministic trend and seasonality a priori could lead to model misspecification. A structural time series methodology was used to examine the role of stochastic trend and seasonality in a dairy supply response model using quarterly time series data. Four ve...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Applied economics letters 2007-10, Vol.14 (12), p.887-891 |
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| container_end_page | 891 |
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| container_issue | 12 |
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| container_title | Applied economics letters |
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| creator | Adhikari, Murali Paudel, Krishna Houstan, Jack Bukenya, James |
| description | Developing a dairy supply model assuming deterministic trend and seasonality a priori could lead to model misspecification. A structural time series methodology was used to examine the role of stochastic trend and seasonality in a dairy supply response model using quarterly time series data. Four versions of a time-linked model of dairy supply response were compared. A dairy supply model with stochastic seasonality and deterministic trend performed the best, as evidenced by diagnostic tests, goodness-of-fit measures, and forecasting accuracy. Our analysis suggested against the classic approach of incorporating the deterministic seasonality component in dairy supply models. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1080/13504850600689907 |
| format | Article |
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| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1350-4851 |
| ispartof | Applied economics letters, 2007-10, Vol.14 (12), p.887-891 |
| issn | 1350-4851 1466-4291 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_197461938 |
| source | RePEc; Business Source Complete |
| subjects | Dairy products Economic analysis Economic models Seasonal variations Stochastic models Studies Supply Time series |
| title | Dairy supply response under stochastic trend and seasonality |
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