Has the forecasting performance of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbooks changed over time?

We investigate how the forecasting performance of the Federal Reserve Greenbooks has changed relative to commercial forecasters between 1974 and 2009. To this end, we analyze time-variation in the Greenbook coefficients in forecast encompassing regressions. Assuming that model coefficients change co...

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Veröffentlicht in:	The B.E. journal of macroeconomics 2017-06, Vol.17 (2), p.1-25
Hauptverfasser:	Ekşi, Ozan, Orman, Cüneyt, Taş, Bedri Kamil Onur
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Bayesian analysis C11 E43 E52 Economic forecasts Economic models evaluating forecasts Forecasting Greenbook inflation forecasts Inflation SPF inflation forecasts Studies time-variation in coefficients
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