Modeling and forecasting U.S. Patent application filings

The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) is faced with the task of estimating levels of demand for its products and services both in the short run and the long run. For this reason, tracking historical levels as well as estimating future levels of patent applications is an ongoing activity of considerable significance. The need for reliable forecasts of patent application filings has been accentuated by the recent funding changes affecting the USPTO. Following enactment of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990, the USPTO underwent a transition to a fully fee-funded environment. In addition, the international patent community (including the European Patent and Japanese Patent Offices) has been trying to coordinate efforts to better serve its global clientele. Predicting these trends and growth areas will permit these offices to plan appropriately. As part of this effort, the USPTO constructed annual and quarterly models of U.S. patent application filings. The forecasting capability of naive, ARIMA, and econometric models are compared.