Analog ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian region
Tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecast model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric that minimizes the error of the ensemble mean forecast. When compared with the climatolo...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Weather and forecasting 2003-02, Vol.18 (1), p.3-11 |
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| creator | FRAEDRICH, Klaus RAIBLE, Christoph C SIELMANN, Frank |
| description | Tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecast model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric that minimizes the error of the ensemble mean forecast. When compared with the climatology-persistence reference model, the adapted analog forecasts achieve great-circle errors that improve the reference model by 15%-20%. Ensemble mean forecast errors grow almost linearly with ensemble spread. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<0003:AEFOTC>2.0.CO;2 |
| format | Article |
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| identifier | ISSN: 0882-8156 |
| ispartof | Weather and forecasting, 2003-02, Vol.18 (1), p.3-11 |
| issn | 0882-8156 1520-0434 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_196335777 |
| source | AMS Journals (American Meteorological Society); Alma/SFX Local Collection; EZB Electronic Journals Library |
| subjects | Climatology Cyclones Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Meteorology Tropical cyclones Weather analysis and prediction |
| title | Analog ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian region |
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