Interdecadal variation of tropical cyclone genesis frequency in late season over the western North Pacific

ABSTRACT This study analysed the time series of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency during October–December (OND) for 32 years (1980–2011). There was a strong decreasing trend of TCs until recently, and the TC sharply decreased from 1996 after the statistical change‐point analysis was applied to this time series. To investigate the cause of such recent decrease in TC genesis frequency, the differences (TC activity and its relation to large‐scale environments, and others) between the mean of the period from 1996 to 2011 and the mean of the period from 1980 to 1995 were analysed. TCs during the period 1996–2011 mainly occurred in the western region of tropical western North Pacific (TWNP), whereas during the 1980–1995 period they mainly occurred in the eastern region of TWNP. In the analysis of differences periods in the 850 hPa and 500 hPa stream flows between the two periods, an anomalous huge anticyclone existed from the north Pacific to the TWNP, and an anomalous huge cyclone existed to the west of 125°E including the East Asian continent. In other words, this is a typical low‐west‐high‐east pressure system that appears in East Asia during summer, and this anomalous pressure system pattern caused the low TC genesis frequency during the 1996–2011 period. The low‐west‐high‐east anomalous pressure system pattern which has been strengthened recently in East Asia suggests that the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) has weakened during the 1996–2011 period. As a result, the amount of snow depth decreased in many areas of the East Asian continent except for the North China and the ground heat net flux also increased in many areas. This weakening of the EAWM strengthened the anomalous huge anticyclone in the TWNP as well as in the central North Pacific, which caused the low TC genesis frequency during the OND in recent years. Time series of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency in October–December (OND) (bar graph) and the result (dotted line) of statistical change‐point analysis on TC genesis frequency. Solid, dashed and red lines denote averages of TC genesis frequency for 1980–1995 and for 1996–2011 and the trend of TC genesis frequency, respectively.