Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems
The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDC...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Climatic change 2017-09, Vol.144 (2), p.165-179 |
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| creator | van Soest, Heleen L. de Boer, Harmen Sytze Roelfsema, Mark den Elzen, Michel G.J. Admiraal, Annemiek van Vuuren, Detlef P. Hof, Andries F. van den Berg, Maarten Harmsen, Mathijs J.H.M. Gernaat, David E.H.J. Forsell, Nicklas |
| description | The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/m
2
in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m
2
leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO
2
equivalent (GtCO
2
eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO
2
eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m
2
forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8 |
| format | Article |
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2
in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m
2
leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO
2
equivalent (GtCO
2
eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO
2
eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m
2
forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0165-0009</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-1480</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Agreements ; Air pollution ; Atmospheric Sciences ; Bridges ; Capacity ; Carbon dioxide ; Clean energy ; Climate change ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts ; Coal ; Coal-fired power plants ; Costs ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Electric power generation ; Electric power plants ; Emissions ; Emissions control ; Emissions trading ; Energy ; Energy costs ; Energy policy ; Greenhouse effect ; Greenhouse gases ; Industrial plant emissions ; Mitigation ; Mitigation costs ; Paris Agreement ; Policies ; Power plants ; Probability theory ; Radiative forcing</subject><ispartof>Climatic change, 2017-09, Vol.144 (2), p.165-179</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2017</rights><rights>Climatic Change is a copyright of Springer, 2017.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c359t-e0659ff4f8d8b9a47113ab3d2c87f4c46366ebc809670e337199010172ea55ce3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c359t-e0659ff4f8d8b9a47113ab3d2c87f4c46366ebc809670e337199010172ea55ce3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27866,27924,27925,41488,42557,51319</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>van Soest, Heleen L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>de Boer, Harmen Sytze</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roelfsema, Mark</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>den Elzen, Michel G.J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Admiraal, Annemiek</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Vuuren, Detlef P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hof, Andries F.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van den Berg, Maarten</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Harmsen, Mathijs J.H.M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gernaat, David E.H.J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Forsell, Nicklas</creatorcontrib><title>Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems</title><title>Climatic change</title><addtitle>Climatic Change</addtitle><description>The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/m
2
in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m
2
leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO
2
equivalent (GtCO
2
eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO
2
eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m
2
forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity.</description><subject>Agreements</subject><subject>Air pollution</subject><subject>Atmospheric Sciences</subject><subject>Bridges</subject><subject>Capacity</subject><subject>Carbon dioxide</subject><subject>Clean energy</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts</subject><subject>Coal</subject><subject>Coal-fired power plants</subject><subject>Costs</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Electric power generation</subject><subject>Electric power plants</subject><subject>Emissions</subject><subject>Emissions control</subject><subject>Emissions trading</subject><subject>Energy</subject><subject>Energy costs</subject><subject>Energy policy</subject><subject>Greenhouse effect</subject><subject>Greenhouse gases</subject><subject>Industrial plant emissions</subject><subject>Mitigation</subject><subject>Mitigation costs</subject><subject>Paris Agreement</subject><subject>Policies</subject><subject>Power plants</subject><subject>Probability theory</subject><subject>Radiative 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Change</stitle><date>2017-09-01</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>144</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>165</spage><epage>179</epage><pages>165-179</pages><issn>0165-0009</issn><eissn>1573-1480</eissn><abstract>The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/m
2
in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m
2
leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO
2
equivalent (GtCO
2
eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO
2
eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m
2
forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><doi>10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8</doi><tpages>15</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| source | PAIS Index; SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings |
| subjects | Agreements Air pollution Atmospheric Sciences Bridges Capacity Carbon dioxide Clean energy Climate change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Coal Coal-fired power plants Costs Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Electric power generation Electric power plants Emissions Emissions control Emissions trading Energy Energy costs Energy policy Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Industrial plant emissions Mitigation Mitigation costs Paris Agreement Policies Power plants Probability theory Radiative forcing |
| title | Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems |
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