Institutional drivers of adaptation in local government decision-making: evidence from Chile

We study how the local institutional context shapes local government decisions about responses to perceived threats of natural disasters and climatic change. We draw on institutional theories and field observations to develop hypotheses about the effects of municipal institutional arrangements, social capital, and multilevel governance. To test these ideas, we analyze a unique dataset with over-time observations for almost all local governments in Chile. Our analysis shows multiple institutional conditions supporting proactive local adaptation: municipalities with relatively robust institutional settings tend to devote more resources to environmental risk management and adaptation. We use our quantitative model to show that altering institutional settings can make a difference for increasing local government investments in this area. Although few local governments in Chile currently enjoy favorable institutional conditions for risk reduction and adaptation, our findings identify ways through which external actors may contribute to a more propitious institutional climate.