Is it possible to differentiate between environmental and fishery effects on abundance‐biomass variation? A case study of blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) in the Strait of Gibraltar
We assessed the potential for simulation and modelling of the blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) population in the Strait of Gibraltar to discriminate the environmental effects of fishery impacts. A discrete biomass–abundance dynamic model was implemented to obtain a simulated monthly time seri...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Fisheries oceanography 2017-07, Vol.26 (4), p.455-475 |
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| creator | Gutiérrez‐Estrada, Juan Carlos Gil‐Herrera, Juan Pulido‐Calvo, Inmaculada Czerwinski, Ivone Alejandra |
| description | We assessed the potential for simulation and modelling of the blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) population in the Strait of Gibraltar to discriminate the environmental effects of fishery impacts. A discrete biomass–abundance dynamic model was implemented to obtain a simulated monthly time series of blackspot seabream biomass. On this simulated time series, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were fitted. The best ARIMA fit provided a significant correlation of 0.76 and persistence index higher than 0.85. The proportion of variance non‐explained by the ARIMA models was correlated with a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The analysis of global, annual and winter correlation between the proportion of variance not explained by the ARIMA models and environmental variables showed that significant associations were not detected over the full time series. Our analysis therefore suggests that overexploitation is the main factor responsible for the commercial depletion of blackspot seabream in the Strait of Gibraltar. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/fog.12208 |
| format | Article |
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A case study of blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) in the Strait of Gibraltar</title><source>Wiley Online Library - AutoHoldings Journals</source><creator>Gutiérrez‐Estrada, Juan Carlos ; Gil‐Herrera, Juan ; Pulido‐Calvo, Inmaculada ; Czerwinski, Ivone Alejandra</creator><creatorcontrib>Gutiérrez‐Estrada, Juan Carlos ; Gil‐Herrera, Juan ; Pulido‐Calvo, Inmaculada ; Czerwinski, Ivone Alejandra</creatorcontrib><description>We assessed the potential for simulation and modelling of the blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) population in the Strait of Gibraltar to discriminate the environmental effects of fishery impacts. A discrete biomass–abundance dynamic model was implemented to obtain a simulated monthly time series of blackspot seabream biomass. On this simulated time series, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were fitted. The best ARIMA fit provided a significant correlation of 0.76 and persistence index higher than 0.85. The proportion of variance non‐explained by the ARIMA models was correlated with a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The analysis of global, annual and winter correlation between the proportion of variance not explained by the ARIMA models and environmental variables showed that significant associations were not detected over the full time series. Our analysis therefore suggests that overexploitation is the main factor responsible for the commercial depletion of blackspot seabream in the Strait of Gibraltar.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1054-6006</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1365-2419</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/fog.12208</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Abundance ; Atmospheric forcing ; autoregressive integrated moving average models ; Autoregressive models ; Biomass ; biomass time series ; Blackspot ; Case studies ; computational simulation ; Computer simulation ; Correlation ; Correlation analysis ; Depletion ; Environment models ; Environmental effects ; Fisheries ; Modelling ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Ocean-atmosphere system ; Overexploitation ; Sea surface ; Sea surface temperature ; Simulation ; Statistical analysis ; Straits ; Surface temperature ; Temperature ; Temperature effects ; Time series ; Variance ; Variance analysis ; Winter</subject><ispartof>Fisheries oceanography, 2017-07, Vol.26 (4), p.455-475</ispartof><rights>2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd</rights><rights>Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c2978-eea99072344e8e04f717f04e88e91026ce70272d41d7e40d17ef5670ebd6bd623</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c2978-eea99072344e8e04f717f04e88e91026ce70272d41d7e40d17ef5670ebd6bd623</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2Ffog.12208$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2Ffog.12208$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,1417,27924,27925,45574,45575</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Gutiérrez‐Estrada, Juan Carlos</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gil‐Herrera, Juan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pulido‐Calvo, Inmaculada</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Czerwinski, Ivone Alejandra</creatorcontrib><title>Is it possible to differentiate between environmental and fishery effects on abundance‐biomass variation? A case study of blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) in the Strait of Gibraltar</title><title>Fisheries oceanography</title><description>We assessed the potential for simulation and modelling of the blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) population in the Strait of Gibraltar to discriminate the environmental effects of fishery impacts. A discrete biomass–abundance dynamic model was implemented to obtain a simulated monthly time series of blackspot seabream biomass. On this simulated time series, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were fitted. The best ARIMA fit provided a significant correlation of 0.76 and persistence index higher than 0.85. The proportion of variance non‐explained by the ARIMA models was correlated with a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The analysis of global, annual and winter correlation between the proportion of variance not explained by the ARIMA models and environmental variables showed that significant associations were not detected over the full time series. Our analysis therefore suggests that overexploitation is the main factor responsible for the commercial depletion of blackspot seabream in the Strait of Gibraltar.</description><subject>Abundance</subject><subject>Atmospheric forcing</subject><subject>autoregressive integrated moving average models</subject><subject>Autoregressive models</subject><subject>Biomass</subject><subject>biomass time series</subject><subject>Blackspot</subject><subject>Case studies</subject><subject>computational simulation</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Correlation</subject><subject>Correlation analysis</subject><subject>Depletion</subject><subject>Environment models</subject><subject>Environmental effects</subject><subject>Fisheries</subject><subject>Modelling</subject><subject>North Atlantic Oscillation</subject><subject>Ocean-atmosphere system</subject><subject>Overexploitation</subject><subject>Sea surface</subject><subject>Sea surface temperature</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Straits</subject><subject>Surface temperature</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Temperature effects</subject><subject>Time series</subject><subject>Variance</subject><subject>Variance analysis</subject><subject>Winter</subject><issn>1054-6006</issn><issn>1365-2419</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp1kc1qGzEQx5fQQFInh7zBQC_1YRNJXku7p2JC4xoCKSQ5L6PdkaNkLbmS1sG3PkKfKA-TJ6la99phYIbhNx_MvyguOLvk2a6MX19yIVh9VJzymZyXouLNh5yzeVVKxuRJ8THGZ8a4mil1WrytItgEWx-j1QNB8tBbYyiQSxYTgab0SuSA3M4G7za5jgOg68HY-ERhD5TxLkXwDlCPrkfX0fvPX9r6DcYIOwx5kPXuCyygw0gQ09jvwRvQA3YvcesTREIdCDfw-TuuaRjGCNqvMeCO_BSsg_REcJ8C5ltz49LqgEPCcFYcGxwinf-Lk-Lx5uvD9bfy9m65ul7clp1oVF0SYdMwJWZVRTWxyiiuDMt5TQ1nQnakmFCir3ivqGI9V2TmUjHSvcwuZpPi02HuNvgfI8XUPvsxuLyy5Q2rpJS14JmaHqgu5H8GMu022A2GfctZ-0eeNsvT_pUns1cH9tUOtP8_2N7cLQ8dvwGrqZW5</recordid><startdate>201707</startdate><enddate>201707</enddate><creator>Gutiérrez‐Estrada, Juan Carlos</creator><creator>Gil‐Herrera, Juan</creator><creator>Pulido‐Calvo, Inmaculada</creator><creator>Czerwinski, Ivone Alejandra</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H95</scope><scope>H99</scope><scope>L.F</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>P64</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201707</creationdate><title>Is it possible to differentiate between environmental and fishery effects on abundance‐biomass variation? A case study of blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) in the Strait of Gibraltar</title><author>Gutiérrez‐Estrada, Juan Carlos ; Gil‐Herrera, Juan ; Pulido‐Calvo, Inmaculada ; Czerwinski, Ivone Alejandra</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c2978-eea99072344e8e04f717f04e88e91026ce70272d41d7e40d17ef5670ebd6bd623</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>Abundance</topic><topic>Atmospheric forcing</topic><topic>autoregressive integrated moving average models</topic><topic>Autoregressive models</topic><topic>Biomass</topic><topic>biomass time series</topic><topic>Blackspot</topic><topic>Case studies</topic><topic>computational simulation</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Correlation</topic><topic>Correlation analysis</topic><topic>Depletion</topic><topic>Environment models</topic><topic>Environmental effects</topic><topic>Fisheries</topic><topic>Modelling</topic><topic>North Atlantic Oscillation</topic><topic>Ocean-atmosphere system</topic><topic>Overexploitation</topic><topic>Sea surface</topic><topic>Sea surface temperature</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>Straits</topic><topic>Surface temperature</topic><topic>Temperature</topic><topic>Temperature effects</topic><topic>Time series</topic><topic>Variance</topic><topic>Variance analysis</topic><topic>Winter</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Gutiérrez‐Estrada, Juan Carlos</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gil‐Herrera, Juan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pulido‐Calvo, Inmaculada</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Czerwinski, Ivone Alejandra</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 1: Biological Sciences & Living Resources</collection><collection>ASFA: Marine Biotechnology Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Marine Biotechnology Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Fisheries oceanography</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Gutiérrez‐Estrada, Juan Carlos</au><au>Gil‐Herrera, Juan</au><au>Pulido‐Calvo, Inmaculada</au><au>Czerwinski, Ivone Alejandra</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Is it possible to differentiate between environmental and fishery effects on abundance‐biomass variation? A case study of blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) in the Strait of Gibraltar</atitle><jtitle>Fisheries oceanography</jtitle><date>2017-07</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>26</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>455</spage><epage>475</epage><pages>455-475</pages><issn>1054-6006</issn><eissn>1365-2419</eissn><abstract>We assessed the potential for simulation and modelling of the blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) population in the Strait of Gibraltar to discriminate the environmental effects of fishery impacts. A discrete biomass–abundance dynamic model was implemented to obtain a simulated monthly time series of blackspot seabream biomass. On this simulated time series, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were fitted. The best ARIMA fit provided a significant correlation of 0.76 and persistence index higher than 0.85. The proportion of variance non‐explained by the ARIMA models was correlated with a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The analysis of global, annual and winter correlation between the proportion of variance not explained by the ARIMA models and environmental variables showed that significant associations were not detected over the full time series. Our analysis therefore suggests that overexploitation is the main factor responsible for the commercial depletion of blackspot seabream in the Strait of Gibraltar.</abstract><cop>Oxford</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><doi>10.1111/fog.12208</doi><tpages>21</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Abundance Atmospheric forcing autoregressive integrated moving average models Autoregressive models Biomass biomass time series Blackspot Case studies computational simulation Computer simulation Correlation Correlation analysis Depletion Environment models Environmental effects Fisheries Modelling North Atlantic Oscillation Ocean-atmosphere system Overexploitation Sea surface Sea surface temperature Simulation Statistical analysis Straits Surface temperature Temperature Temperature effects Time series Variance Variance analysis Winter |
| title | Is it possible to differentiate between environmental and fishery effects on abundance‐biomass variation? A case study of blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) in the Strait of Gibraltar |
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