The Effect of Public Insurance Coverage for Childless Adults on Labor Supply

This study provides plausibly causal estimates of the effect of public insurance coverage on the employment of non-elderly, nondisabled adults without dependent children ("childless adults"). We take advantage of the sudden imposition of an enrollment cap in Wisconsin, comparing the labor supply of enrollees to eligible applicants placed on a waitlist using a regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences methods. We find enrollment into public insurance leads to sizable and statistically meaningful reductions in employment, with an estimated effect size of just over 5 percentage points, a 12 percent decline. Confidence intervals rule out positive and large negative effects.