Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect volatility? Evidence from the ECB surveys

We examine quarterly oil price forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the European Central Bank. We present three empirical findings, all of which are robust to the number of respondents considered. First, the dispersion of forecasts is correlated positively with the aver...

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Veröffentlicht in:	International journal of forecasting 2016-10, Vol.32 (4), p.1178-1192
Hauptverfasser:	Atalla, Tarek, Joutz, Fred, Pierru, Axel
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Correlation analysis Crude oil prices Disagreement Forecaster Forecasting Forecasts Oil price Price variance Studies Survey Volatility
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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