Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?

This article asks whether capital inflows bonanzas increase the probability of banking crises and whether this occurs through a lending boom mechanism. Results indicate that bonanzas more than triple the odds of a crisis, raising its probability to 14% (from an unconditional probability of 4%). This...

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Veröffentlicht in:	The Economic journal (London) 2016-03, Vol.126 (591), p.281-316
1. Verfasser:	Caballero, Julián A.
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Bank portfolios Capital movement Economic crisis Lending Probability Studies
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creator	Caballero, Julián A.
description	This article asks whether capital inflows bonanzas increase the probability of banking crises and whether this occurs through a lending boom mechanism. Results indicate that bonanzas more than triple the odds of a crisis, raising its probability to 14% (from an unconditional probability of 4%). This effect exists in the absence of a lending boom and is found in both net and gross inflows bonanzas. This effect is driven by portfolio-equity and debt flows. While the effect of debt is channelled through excessive lending, the effect of portfolio-equity flows is present even in the absence of a lending boom.
doi_str_mv	10.1111/ecoj.12172
format	Article
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source	Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete; Business Source Complete; JSTOR Archive Collection A-Z Listing; Oxford University Press Journals All Titles (1996-Current)
subjects	Bank portfolios Capital movement Economic crisis Lending Probability Studies
title	Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?
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