Metamodeling in Multidisciplinary Design Optimization: How Far Have We Really Come?

The use of metamodeling techniques in the design and analysis of computer experiments has progressed remarkably in the past 25 years, but how far has the field really come? This is the question addressed in this paper, namely, the extent to which the use of metamodeling techniques in multidisciplinary design optimization have evolved in the 25 years since the seminal paper on design and analysis of computer experiments by Sacks et al. ("Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments," Statistical Science, Vol. 4, No. 4, 1989, pp. 409-435). Rather than a technical review of the entire body of metamodeling literature, the focus is on the evolution and motivation for advancements in metamodeling with some discussion on the research itself; not surprisingly, much of the current research motivation is the same as it was in the past. Based on current research thrusts in the field, multifidelity approximations and ensembles (i.e., sets) of metamodels, as well as the availability of metamodels within commercial software, are emphasized. Design space exploration and visualization via metamodels are also presented as they rely heavily on metamodels for rapid design evaluations during exploration. The closing remarks offer insight into future research directions, mostly motivated by the need for new capabilities and the ability to handle more complex simulations. Presented as Paper 2008-5802 at the AIAA Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization Conference, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, 10-12 September 2008