Market Exposure and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle
We propose a theory of endogenous firm-level risk over the business cycle based on endogenous market exposure. Firms that reach a larger number of markets diversify market-specific demand shocks at a cost. The model is driven only by total factor productivity shocks and captures the observed counter...
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Veröffentlicht in: | American economic journal. Macroeconomics 2016-01, Vol.8 (1), p.148-198 |
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creator | Decker, Ryan A. D'Erasmo, Pablo N. Boedo, Hernan Moscoso |
description | We propose a theory of endogenous firm-level risk over the business cycle based on endogenous market exposure. Firms that reach a larger number of markets diversify market-specific demand shocks at a cost. The model is driven only by total factor productivity shocks and captures the observed countercyclity of firm-level risk. Using a panel of US firms we show that, consistent with our theoretical model, measures of market reach are procyclical, and the countercyclicality of firm-level risk is driven by those firms that adjust their market exposure, which are larger than those that do not. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1257/mac.20130011 |
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subjects | Business cycles Censuses Central banks Economic development Economic theory GDP Gross Domestic Product Macroeconomics Productivity Risk exposure Studies Volatility |
title | Market Exposure and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle |
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