Market Exposure and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle

We propose a theory of endogenous firm-level risk over the business cycle based on endogenous market exposure. Firms that reach a larger number of markets diversify market-specific demand shocks at a cost. The model is driven only by total factor productivity shocks and captures the observed counter...

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Veröffentlicht in:American economic journal. Macroeconomics 2016-01, Vol.8 (1), p.148-198
Hauptverfasser: Decker, Ryan A., D'Erasmo, Pablo N., Boedo, Hernan Moscoso
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container_title American economic journal. Macroeconomics
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creator Decker, Ryan A.
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Boedo, Hernan Moscoso
description We propose a theory of endogenous firm-level risk over the business cycle based on endogenous market exposure. Firms that reach a larger number of markets diversify market-specific demand shocks at a cost. The model is driven only by total factor productivity shocks and captures the observed countercyclity of firm-level risk. Using a panel of US firms we show that, consistent with our theoretical model, measures of market reach are procyclical, and the countercyclicality of firm-level risk is driven by those firms that adjust their market exposure, which are larger than those that do not.
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ispartof American economic journal. Macroeconomics, 2016-01, Vol.8 (1), p.148-198
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source American Economic Association; JSTOR
subjects Business cycles
Censuses
Central banks
Economic development
Economic theory
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Macroeconomics
Productivity
Risk exposure
Studies
Volatility
title Market Exposure and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle
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