Do Crude Petroleum Imports Affect GDP of Turkey?
This study examines the dynamic linkages between crude petroleum imports and GDP of Turkey. The vector autoregression analysis is carried on quarterly data for the period 1998Q1 to 2013Q2. This study utilized the generalized approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response anal...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of applied finance and banking 2015-07, Vol.5 (4), p.61 |
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| creator | Ener, Meliha Kiliç, Cüneyt Balan, Feyza |
| description | This study examines the dynamic linkages between crude petroleum imports and GDP of Turkey. The vector autoregression analysis is carried on quarterly data for the period 1998Q1 to 2013Q2. This study utilized the generalized approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis which have many advantages against the traditional orthogonalized approach. The empirical results suggest that petroleum imports have positive impact on GDP until the second quarter. But, after the second quarter crude petroleum imports have negative impact on GDP. The results of the Granger causality test showed that crude petroleum imports granger caused GDP at 5% significance level, but not vice versa. Moreover, the generalized variance decomposition analysis exerted that the imports of crude petroleum shocks have only a small effect on GDP initially. However, after eighth quarters, the imports of crude petroleum shocks explain 31.7 pct. of the GDP, whereas 26.46 pct. of the variation in imports of crude petroleum shocks is explained by GDP shocks. |
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The vector autoregression analysis is carried on quarterly data for the period 1998Q1 to 2013Q2. This study utilized the generalized approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis which have many advantages against the traditional orthogonalized approach. The empirical results suggest that petroleum imports have positive impact on GDP until the second quarter. But, after the second quarter crude petroleum imports have negative impact on GDP. The results of the Granger causality test showed that crude petroleum imports granger caused GDP at 5% significance level, but not vice versa. Moreover, the generalized variance decomposition analysis exerted that the imports of crude petroleum shocks have only a small effect on GDP initially. However, after eighth quarters, the imports of crude petroleum shocks explain 31.7 pct. of the GDP, whereas 26.46 pct. of the variation in imports of crude petroleum shocks is explained by GDP shocks.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1792-6580</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1792-6599</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Athens: Scientific Press International Limited</publisher><subject>Causality ; Consumer Price Index ; Crude oil ; Crude oil prices ; Decomposition ; Economic conditions ; Economic growth ; Energy consumption ; Gasoline ; GDP ; Gross Domestic Product ; Imports ; Oil consumption ; Real income ; Regression analysis ; Studies ; Unemployment ; Variables</subject><ispartof>Journal of applied finance and banking, 2015-07, Vol.5 (4), p.61</ispartof><rights>Copyright International Scientific Press 2015</rights><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Ener, Meliha</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kiliç, Cüneyt</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Balan, Feyza</creatorcontrib><title>Do Crude Petroleum Imports Affect GDP of Turkey?</title><title>Journal of applied finance and banking</title><description>This study examines the dynamic linkages between crude petroleum imports and GDP of Turkey. The vector autoregression analysis is carried on quarterly data for the period 1998Q1 to 2013Q2. This study utilized the generalized approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis which have many advantages against the traditional orthogonalized approach. The empirical results suggest that petroleum imports have positive impact on GDP until the second quarter. But, after the second quarter crude petroleum imports have negative impact on GDP. The results of the Granger causality test showed that crude petroleum imports granger caused GDP at 5% significance level, but not vice versa. Moreover, the generalized variance decomposition analysis exerted that the imports of crude petroleum shocks have only a small effect on GDP initially. However, after eighth quarters, the imports of crude petroleum shocks explain 31.7 pct. of the GDP, whereas 26.46 pct. of the variation in imports of crude petroleum shocks is explained by GDP shocks.</description><subject>Causality</subject><subject>Consumer Price Index</subject><subject>Crude oil</subject><subject>Crude oil prices</subject><subject>Decomposition</subject><subject>Economic conditions</subject><subject>Economic growth</subject><subject>Energy consumption</subject><subject>Gasoline</subject><subject>GDP</subject><subject>Gross Domestic Product</subject><subject>Imports</subject><subject>Oil consumption</subject><subject>Real income</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Unemployment</subject><subject>Variables</subject><issn>1792-6580</issn><issn>1792-6599</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2015</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><recordid>eNpjYuA0NLc00jUztbRkgbMtDDgYeIuLswyAwNzC2MTQlJPBwCVfwbmoNCVVISC1pCg_J7U0V8EztyC_qKRYwTEtLTW5RMHdJUAhP00hpLQoO7XSnoeBNS0xpziVF0pzMyi7uYY4e-gWFOUXlqYWl8Rn5ZcW5QGl4g3NLC1MDAyMLU2MiVMFAEFUM-8</recordid><startdate>20150701</startdate><enddate>20150701</enddate><creator>Ener, Meliha</creator><creator>Kiliç, Cüneyt</creator><creator>Balan, Feyza</creator><general>Scientific Press International Limited</general><scope>3V.</scope><scope>4U-</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>87Z</scope><scope>885</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8FL</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ANIOZ</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FRAZJ</scope><scope>FRNLG</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>K60</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>M1F</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQBZA</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>Q9U</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20150701</creationdate><title>Do Crude Petroleum Imports Affect GDP of Turkey?</title><author>Ener, Meliha ; 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The vector autoregression analysis is carried on quarterly data for the period 1998Q1 to 2013Q2. This study utilized the generalized approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis which have many advantages against the traditional orthogonalized approach. The empirical results suggest that petroleum imports have positive impact on GDP until the second quarter. But, after the second quarter crude petroleum imports have negative impact on GDP. The results of the Granger causality test showed that crude petroleum imports granger caused GDP at 5% significance level, but not vice versa. Moreover, the generalized variance decomposition analysis exerted that the imports of crude petroleum shocks have only a small effect on GDP initially. 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| subjects | Causality Consumer Price Index Crude oil Crude oil prices Decomposition Economic conditions Economic growth Energy consumption Gasoline GDP Gross Domestic Product Imports Oil consumption Real income Regression analysis Studies Unemployment Variables |
| title | Do Crude Petroleum Imports Affect GDP of Turkey? |
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