Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States

In this paper, we evaluate the usefulness of financial indicators according to their ability to predict recessions (i.e., peaks in the business cycle). We then select a small set of financial indicators to aggregate into a single composite index of financial indicators, which we name the Leading Cre...

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Veröffentlicht in:	International journal of forecasting 2015-04, Vol.31 (2), p.426-445
Hauptverfasser:	Levanon, Gad, Manini, Jean-Claude, Ozyildirim, Ataman, Schaitkin, Brian, Tanchua, Jennelyn
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Business cycles Economic forecasting Economic indicators Financial conditions Forecasting Indexes Money and credit Recessions Studies Turning points
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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