The effect of model uncertainty on the pricing of critical illness insurance

In this paper we calculate and compare diagnosis and net premium rates for critical illness insurance using different models for the claim delay distribution (CDD). The choice of CDD affects the diagnosis rates and hence the net premium rates in two ways: through the estimation of missing dates of d...

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Veröffentlicht in:Annals of actuarial science 2015-03, Vol.9 (1), p.108-133
Hauptverfasser: (Ozkok) Dodd, Erengul, Streftaris, George, Waters, Howard R., Stott, Andrew D.
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:In this paper we calculate and compare diagnosis and net premium rates for critical illness insurance using different models for the claim delay distribution (CDD). The choice of CDD affects the diagnosis rates and hence the net premium rates in two ways: through the estimation of missing dates of diagnosis and through the adjustment of the exposure to allow for claims diagnosed but not settled in the observation period. We consider two CDDs: a three-parameter Burr distribution and a lognormal distribution. Our conclusion, based on a single, but extensive, data set, is that net premium rates are not significantly affected by the choice of CDD.
ISSN:1748-4995
1748-5002
DOI:10.1017/S1748499514000244