Surface ozone variability and the jet position: Implications for projecting future air quality

Changes in the variability of surface ozone can affect the incidence of ozone pollution events. Analysis of multi‐century simulations from a chemistry climate model shows that present‐day summertime variability of surface ozone depends strongly on the jet stream position over eastern North America. This relationship holds on decadal time scales under projected climate change scenarios, in which surface ozone variability follows the robust poleward shift of the jet. The correlation between ozone and co‐located temperature over eastern North America is also closely tied to the jet position, implying that local ozone‐temperature relationships may change as the circulation changes. Jet position can thus serve as a dynamical predictor of future surface ozone variability over eastern North America and may also modulate ozone variability in other northern midlatitude regions. Key Points Ozone variability is a function of the jet position Surface ozone variability follows the jet in future climate simulations Regional ozone-temperature relationships may change in the future