Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts
In this paper we present a multivariate analysis of the Federal Reserve’s forecasts. First, we use existing univariate methods to evaluate each of the Fed’s forecasts of the ten major expenditure categories of real GDP which have not previously been evaluated in the literature. Second, we apply a re...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | International journal of forecasting 2015-01, Vol.31 (1), p.157-164 |
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| container_title | International journal of forecasting |
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| creator | Sinclair, Tara M. Stekler, H.O. Carnow, Warren |
| description | In this paper we present a multivariate analysis of the Federal Reserve’s forecasts. First, we use existing univariate methods to evaluate each of the Fed’s forecasts of the ten major expenditure categories of real GDP which have not previously been evaluated in the literature. Second, we apply a recently developed methodology to evaluate jointly the vector of these forecasts. Finally, we use the same methodology to determine whether the Fed’s forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment, taken together, present an accurate overall view of the economic situation, and compare the Fed’s forecasts to those of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find that the Fed’s forecasts were generally consistent with the overall conditions that actually occurred. We also find that the Fed’s forecasts and those of the Survey of Professional Forecasters are quite similar overall. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.002 |
| format | Article |
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| ispartof | International journal of forecasting, 2015-01, Vol.31 (1), p.157-164 |
| issn | 0169-2070 1872-8200 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_1635053132 |
| source | Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals |
| subjects | Business cycle Economic forecasting Expenditure approach Federal Reserve Federal Reserve monetary policy Forecast evaluation GDP Gross Domestic Product Inflation Mahalanobis Distance Multivariate analysis Real GDP Studies Unemployment |
| title | Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts |
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